Meta-planning

As more information comes to light about the Special Ops mission in Abbottabad, Pakistan we’re reminded of the value of effective contingency planning in conducting high-risk maneuvers. Military analysts will someday reconstruct in detail the planning measures taken by the JSOC team, and we’ll learn how this team of specialists succeeded despite the challenges they faced.

For now we can only speculate about the risks and uncertainties facing the planners at various decision points. But we do know that the mission’s tactical planners had to consider two questions at every juncture: What can go wrong here, and what do we do about it?

These aren’t the only questions the planners had to pursue. They have to question the intelligence they’re using and they have to examine their own assumptions. Guarding against groupthink is a first order consideration. These “meta-planning” aspects of the exercise are as vital as formulating the action plan itself.

Redundancy

That all of the SEAL commandos returned safely after intercepting their target — despite losing a chopper to a mechanical malfunction — shows the value of effective planning.

While the planners may not have envisioned the chopper being disabled quite the way that it was, their contingency measures called for a spare unit. Back-up choppers expanded the team’s capacity to respond to a range of potential threats.

The planners had, in fact, learned from the disastrous rescue attempt of U.S. hostages in Tehran in 1980 that was undermined by a helicopter accident. Learning from prior mistakes is essential in effective contingency planning.

Radar Love

Seasoned tacticians talk about keeping their “radar on” when planning risky operations. By that, they don’t mean being passively alert. They mean changing “frequencies” regularly to see what else might appear on their screen.  They mean an intuitive “feel” that experienced practitioners develop. Evidently, the planners of this mission kept their radar on.

This operation was surgical because of several factors: sound intelligence, planning and execution.When the details of this mission are finally unpacked, we’ll be able to take a closer look at what happened. For those of us interested in how practitioners can improve their planning of complicated, high-risk initiatives, this operation should make a splendid case study.

***

Want more info for this subject?

• Former U.S. Director of National Intelligence, Dennis Blair, talks about the planning and execution of the mission with Charlie Rose. Here’s a recent post, Planning for Uncertainty, about a related tool, Scenario Planning.
• The problem of groupthink at the tactical planning level is explored in this paper (PDF) by Maj. Phillip M. Johnson of the School of Advanced Military Studies.

Addenda:

• President Obama discusses the mission, including his active role in the planning process, on 60 Minutes.
• What Happened that Night in Abbottabad, in the New Yorker.

No related posts.

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

Paris Urban Pattern

I’ve recently noticed a subtle but perceptible attitude shift among Americans working in foreign markets. My overseas colleagues are noticing, too. American business people, they say, are displaying more thoughtfulness than usual. U.S. companies operating overseas seem less inclined to approach global business as though its epicenter is in New York or Palo Alto.

It’s too soon to call this a new Zeitgeist, but change is in the air. The global economic crisis, which has its roots in the U.S., may be partially responsible. I think the new vibe is also influenced by Washington’s new tone in its approach to global  affairs.  As an American doing business abroad, this is promising.

Historically, many American firms have approached business from a decidedly ethnocentric perspective–more so than many of our European rivals.  U.S. companies have missed opportunities as a result.

Things seem to be moving in a better direction now.

More Americans are coming to terms with the fact that global power is shifting away from America. It’s not that the U.S. is declining. Instead, other nations are rising. The U.S. is still a hothouse for science and technological innovation, but emerging markets are coming into their own.

We now find ourselves in a multi-polar world–one that Fareed Zakaria describes as the “Rise of the Rest“.  It’s a world where more people in other markets are well-informed and better-skilled than ever before. This is true in markets where living standards are considerably lower than ours.  The pool of business and technology talent in emerging markets is growing deeper every day. In my view, this isn’t a problem. It’s a golden opportunity, but one for which we have to prepare.

Globalization has created more homogeneous markets, but there are marked differences in the pace, etiquette and style of conducting business. These differences are more pronounced in emerging regions.  In any case, it’s immensely helpful to learn about the customs, behaviors and culture of markets where we’re doing business.  It starts by taking a considerate view of other cultures and appreciating what makes them unique. The most obvious benefit to this approach is that it helps build more durable business relationships and friendships.

How can greater respect and appreciation be demonstrated for colleagues in foreign markets?

I suggest five practices that we can undertake to improve the way we engage clients and colleagues in other cultures.  More enlightened business people working in foreign markets–including Americans–already use these practices:

1) Learn the language. At least learn enough to greet your clients but, ideally, strive for more. If your linguistic skills aren’t strong, at least how to how to greet, thank and toast your host in their native language. Go beyond merely learning “please” and “thank you”. Work on your pronunciation. Ideally, take language courses, download language lessons or–and this is my preference–hire a native-speaking tutor.

English is the language of global business, and it’s likely that your clients speak English. But, recognize that it’s often their second or third language. Never assume they understand your meaning.  Avoid slang or jargon. In any case, I suggest following up formal discussions with written summaries using direct, simple terms to recap key points.

2) Broaden the lens. Get as much contextual background information about the local culture as possible. It’s not only enriching, it helps you see your client’s challenges from their perspective. When I’m studying a new market, I gather market research as dictated by the project. But, I also try to learn about the region’s history and current affairs. I read as much as possible and talk to as many people from the region as I can before stepping foot in the market.

Learn about your client’s business culture, management practices and technology, but also get a feel for the “market context”. What’s the local business climate like? For example, many governments have recently privatized and deregulated  industries resulting in greater competition. Will such reforms continue in light of the economic downturn and, if so, how will they affect the problems you’re helping clients solve?

3) Be flexible. When booking client conferences, I observe their schedule. That means early morning, sometimes pre-dawn, conversations with clients who are 10 or more hours ahead of me. The upside is appreciative clients. (The downside, of course, is sleep deprivation.) It also means conferences on weekends with Middle Eastern clients whose days of rest are Thursday and Friday, or Friday and Saturday, and who observe different holidays. Flexibility is essential, but the rewards are substantial.

4) Integrate and collaborate. Happily, the days when a team of high-priced consultants flies into a region to fix problems for clients are over. Next generation collaboration tools like wikis are making it possible for distant, cross-cultural teams to integrate their skills and minimize project costs from start to finish. For example, our U.S. based technical team will work with a client’s process owners to develop solutions that neither team could produce on their own. Much of our team stays behind as the project unfolds. The result is a more cost-effective solution that is validated on a real-time basis by the client which also means fewer surprises.

5) Assume an attitude of humility and consideration. Approach assignments in other markets from the standpoint that the client knows what works best on the ground. Sometimes they need help seeing it from a different perspective, but their insights are valuable. My team lets foreign clients know at the start of an assignment that we recognize this fact.

An appreciative stance toward the client and their culture helps us build trust so we can move swiftly toward a more integrative solution.  A humbler, more considerate approach paves the way for a more enriching and successful assignment.

The global marketplace has undergone a seismic shift. Business people who bring a considerate attitude to their assignments in foreign markets will fare much better in a world that is now being defined and driven by talented, skillful people in those markets.

_____________________

Want more info on this subject? Read Newsweek editor Fareed Zakaria’s The Post-American World (W.W. Norton & Co., 2008).

No related posts.

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

Ex Africa semper aliquid novi — Out of Africa always something new. ~Pliny the Elder

This week marks my company’s 3rd anniversary of working in Africa within our emerging markets service practice. Helping companies in the region to understand and serve the needs of their customers has been enriching on a personal level.  I’ve had the privilege of witnessing the growth of the sub-Sahara’s nascent service industry and I marvel at its favorable impact on a growing number of people in the region.

The ascendant mobile industry illustrates the point.  On a continent where few people have landlines due to the high cost of installing cabling, cell phones are bridging the communications gap. In many sub-Saharan markets, like Ghana where we work, mobile growth rates have been approaching 50% annually. While less than 20% have mobile phones now, hundreds of millions of Africans are expected to get handsets in the next few years. Keep in mind that this is a continent of almost a billion people. That’s a lot of potential new subscribers.

I’ve written about how people in emerging markets are using their new cell phones to perform essential functions like transferring money (m-banking). But mobile technology is connecting people in wondrous, new ways every day.  Local entrepreneurs are devising inventive means of helping people meet their needs. TradeNet, a company in Ghana, has developed an eBay-like site enabling buyers and sellers of agricultural products to post their needs and offerings using text messaging.  MPedigree, another Ghanaian venture, lets consumers check the serial numbers of malaria or other drugs to determine if they are legitimate, a pressing regional concern.

Mobile technology is a “disruptive force” that is quietly but inexorably changing the lives of Africans across all socio-economic strata. The industry employs thousands of workers, improving living standards and slowing the region’s talent drain. A recent London Business School study found that a 10% increase in mobile-phone penetration adds 0.6 percentage points to the economic growth rate.  According to Columbia University’s Jeffrey Sachs, “The cell phone is the single most transformative technology for development”.  It’s the region’s best hope for bridging the growing digital divide.

Make no mistake: the challenges of building on the early successes are steep. Despite inroads by equipment makers, handsets are still too pricey for people at the bottom of the pyramid who live on less than a couple dollars a day. Governments and companies must work more closely to make low cost handsets available to more people.  Telecom firms must invest in tools and practices to meet the growing needs of customers as their markets grow crowded with new competitors.   The mobile business is pushing Africa’s service industry forward rapidly.

There is growing uncertainty about how the global economic crisis will affect the region. While developing economies are tanking, analysts believe that regional GDP growth will slow but not recede. And, the region is expected  to bounce back sooner than developed nations.  While I’m not confident in analysts’ rosy predictions these days, I’d wager that we’ll see growth, albeit below the robust 5% rate the region has enjoyed in recent years.

When it comes to Africa, my rule is to always expect the unexpected.  Stability is something that people in the region don’t take for granted. In January, Ghana witnessed a peaceful transfer of power from one political party to another.  But memories of coups and tyranny are too recent and too close at hand to take stability for granted.

I genuinely enjoy working and spending time in the West Africa. It stimulates my mind, quells my restlessness and, at times, tries my patience. Often projects take longer to develop  than seems reasonable to a Westerner, and it’s imperative to figure that into any timetable.  But if you’re wired for adventure, it’s one of the most compelling business destinations on the globe.  I’ve had the pleasure of collaborating with some of the sharpest, most resourceful entrepreneurial minds I’ve ever encountered.  And, there’s nothing like the thrill of making things happen in a region where doing so has such a profound impact on people’s daily lives.  There’s nothing like that.

More on the impact of the mobile industry in Africa from BusinessWeek.

No related posts.

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.