Meta-planning

As information comes to light about the Special Ops mission in Abbottabad, Pakistan, we’re reminded of the value of effective contingency planning. Military analysts will one day reconstruct the planning measures taken by the JSOC team, and we’ll learn how the project specialists succeeded despite the challenges.

For now we can only speculate about the risks and uncertainties facing the planners at key decision points. But we do know that the mission’s tactical planners had to consider two big questions at every juncture: What can go wrong here, and what do we do about it?

These aren’t the only questions the planners had to pursue. They have to question the intelligence they’re using and they have to examine their own assumptions. Guarding against groupthink is a first order consideration. These “meta-planning” aspects of the exercise are as vital as formulating the action plan itself.

Redundancy

That all of the SEAL commandos returned safely after intercepting their target — despite losing a chopper to a mechanical malfunction — shows the value of effective planning.

While the planners may not have envisioned the chopper being disabled quite the way that it was, their contingency measures called for a spare unit. Back-up choppers expanded the team’s capacity to respond to a range of potential threats.

The planners had, in fact, learned from the disastrous rescue attempt of U.S. hostages in Tehran in 1980 that was undermined by a helicopter accident. Learning from prior mistakes is essential in effective contingency planning.

Radar Love

Seasoned tacticians talk about keeping their “radar on” when planning risky operations. By that, they don’t mean being passively alert. They mean changing “frequencies” regularly to see what else might appear on their screen.  They mean an intuitive “feel” that experienced practitioners develop. Evidently, the planners of this mission kept their radar on.

This operation was surgical because of several factors: sound intelligence, planning and execution.When the details of this mission are finally unpacked, we’ll be able to take a closer look at what happened. For those of us interested in how practitioners can improve their planning of complicated, high-risk initiatives, this operation should make a splendid case study.

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Want more info for this subject?

• Former U.S. Director of National Intelligence, Dennis Blair, talks about the planning and execution of the mission with Charlie Rose. Here’s a recent post, Planning for Uncertainty, about a related tool, Scenario Planning.
• The problem of groupthink at the tactical planning level is explored in this paper (PDF) by Maj. Phillip M. Johnson of the School of Advanced Military Studies.

Addenda:

• President Obama discusses the mission, including his active role in the planning process, on 60 Minutes.
• What Happened that Night in Abbottabad, in the New Yorker.

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The U.S. electorate is about to make its choice. The next president will be tested by an epic global economic downturn and a domestic crisis in leadership.  Even before he takes office, he’ll need to inspire confidence in his approach. He’ll have to build a consensus with leaders of the opposition and will have to choose some of them to join his team.  Governing in this environment will demand extraordinary leadership skills—sound judgment, character depth and an even temperament. 

I’ve been reflecting lately on the virtues of leadership. I’ve thought about how heads of state in the U.S. and around the world have met challenges as vexing as these.    

I keep returning to Jim Collins’ popular book, Good to Great. He analyzes how companies go from being merely good performers to achieving sustainable great performance.  In identifying success factors, he noticed that truly great companies were led by what he termed “Level 5 leaders”—individuals who possess a rare and seemingly contradictory blend of intense drive and humility. Collins observed that these leaders demonstrated an abiding commitment to the long term success of their companies rather than advancing their own personal agendas.

What’s relevant to the U.S. election is that Level 5s used their fierce determination and humility to build consensus around tough, often unpopular choices that brought about radical but necessary changes–something the next president will have to accomplish.              

Interestingly, Collins later observed, “We live in a culture that doesn’t pick Level 5s as subjects of admiration.” He added, “And that’s unfortunate for the business world, as well as the world at large.”

Among U.S. presidents, Lincoln seems have best embodied Level 5 traits. His humility along with his fierce determination to keep the country united guided the tough Lincoln to make tough and, at times, unorthodox decisions.   In her book, Team of Rivals: The Political Genius of Abraham Lincoln, Doris Kearns Goodwin describes how a humble, painfully shy Lincoln forged an administration of his opponents, building a coalition that enabled him to govern during the most perilous time in the nation’s history.   

Collins doesn’t delve extensively into temperment, character or managing style but I’m convinced that these qualities matter to a leader whatever the environment. And in times of crisis, temperament and character are paramount.  

Historically, great leaders made tough choices which were often unpopular at the tinme.  They had their share of failures and missed opportunities, but ultimately they succeeded.  What we learned from their effective stewardship is that leadership matters.  Character and temperment do count.    

By now, most Americans have figured out what they’re looking for in their next president. They’ve seen both men in a wide range of situations and they’ve observed how each has run his campaign during the last 22 months.  Voters will judge both men on the basis of the choices they’ve made, how they’ve articulated their vision, and the kinds of people they’ll consult. 

Whatever the electorate decides tomorrow, one thing is certain, the next president will face challenges as great as any since Washington, Lincoln and FDR.  He’ll need every possible advantage.

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