Today, there are more than 3.3 billion mobile-phone subscriptions worldwide, which means that there are at least three billion people who don’t own cell phones, the bulk… found in Africa and Asia.                                                                                                                                                                                                  --Sara Corbett, author “Can the Cell Phone Help End Global Poverty?” (NYT)

I’ve been optimistic about the continued growth of mobile services in emerging regions, even through this downturn. If that happens, it’s good news for those who appreciate what connectivity is doing for new subscribers in the developing world. The nascent mobile sector is an enabling engine for other industries in the developing world notably health care, agriculture, banking, and goverment services.

We see continued growth in emerging markets where there are few fixed line communications, low mobile penetration rates, and the arrival of new, highly motivated operators. Look for continued double digit growth (CAGR). Revenue growth (ARPU) will likely lag subscriber growth as companies add more lower-income users. Despite a crowding market, prospects for for growth by incumbent and new operators remains strong so long as they manage their growth with an eye to the future.

The next big thing on the horizon are cheaper handsets that enable service for very low income subscribers.  Handset makers like Nokia are working on it, but reaching a critical, ”ultra low” price point is just out of reach. But we’re moving in the right direction.  Meanwhile, as service is steadily rolling out to areas that had no prior coverage, we’re glimpsing the rapid evolution of the service economy in developing markets.

Our regional partners and we see more promising opportunities for helping emerging mobile companies and other service providers to leverage smart technology, astute  management practices, and business analytics to operate efficiently and profitably.  That works for commerce, and it works for emerging consumers who yearn for something better.

For more on this subject, I recommend: Nokia researcher and behavioral designer Jan Chipchase’s TED talk(2007). He discusses insights he’s discovered about how people in developing regions use mobile technology.  He reminds us, “People want to be part of the conversation.”

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