Using a longer lens

It’s been twenty years since the publication of Peter Schwartz’s insightful primer about scenario planning, The Art of the Long View. In the book, Schwartz makes a convincing case for using scenario planning in approaching strategic challenges of various kinds.

Schwartz, who led scenario planning efforts at Shell, Motorola, and Pacific Gas and Electric, concluded that the technique could be applied to handling the emergent complex threats that companies were confronting in the 90′s.

Since then, the world has grown radically more complex, more uncertain. Globalization and the Internet have woven together our institutions so that a crisis in one corner of the world can spread virally with far-reaching consequences.

Cascading consequences

We now live in a world where an unknown street vendor in an obscure Tunisian village sets himself on fire and a few weeks later the dictatorial regime in Egypt collapses. Those events triggered spiraling oil prices which boosted worldwide food and commodity prices with a cascade of far-reaching consequences.

While leaders can’t predict the next cataclysmic event, they must now contend with a wider range of plausible, discontinuous threats. Failure to do so can imperil their institutions.

In a world where traditional, linear thinking is inadequate, scenario planning is a platform for enabling problem solvers to explore the question: “Given what we know, and what we don’t know, what should we do now?”

That’s a significant question, but it’s not enough to simply ponder significant questions. Problem-solvers must also overcome the internal barriers – psychological as well as physical – which can paralyze organizations when the stakes are high. Scenario planning provides a context for examining assumptions and biases, and for avoiding the denial that ensues when facing existential threats.

Schwartz observes, “When decision-makers begin to look at the future, denial acts as an automatic shut-off valve: ‘I can’t consider that…’ A good scenario asks people to suspend their disbelief long enough to appreciate its impact.”

The Singapore Miracle

One of the more celebrated scenario planning cases is the Singapore story. That nation’s government first used the technique to help build its nascent entrepreneurial society in the 70’s and 80’s, and later to cope with a string of discontinuous shocks that threatened its economy including the Asian financial crisis of the 90’s.

Since then, Singapore has embedded the technique in its strategic planning efforts. Scenario thinking helped its leaders to recognize that in a region increasingly dominated by its giant neighbor, China, their nation must become an innovative technology hub. (Singapore’s mantra says it best: Anticipate change, stay relevant.) As a result, the government is investing $12 billion USD in technology R & D over five years — a 20% spending increase — to attract gifted engineers and entrepreneurs.

Lessons from the field

My own experience with scenario planning in a variety of settings has been overwhelmingly positive. It remains one of the more advanced tools in the strategic arsenal. My appreciation of the practice has only grown over time.

I’ve learned this: Convene the right problem-solvers under the right circumstances and they’ll reach a shared understanding, despite differences in perspective. Scenario planning helps organizations to recognize threats, opportunities and weak signals, and it often leads to practical solutions that everyone in the room can support.

When The Art of the Long View was published in ’91, scenario planning was deemed a novel technique for organizations facing rare and unusually complex issues. Today, most of our pressing challenges are laced with complexity — that’s our new reality.

If we’re going to prepare for what’s next, let’s bring in our sharpest minds and give them the tools to move the enterprise forward. I’m pleased to report that scenario planning is still the right tool for the job.

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As always, I’d appreciate hearing your views…

Want more info on this subject?

1. One of the more interesting critiques of Schwartz’s book is found in a video dialogue between Niall Ferguson and Schwartz
2. Here’s an insightful talk (video clip), The Singapore Miracle & Gov 2.0, by Peter Ho, Singapore’s former head of civil service, who explains his country’s work with scenario planning. Peter Schwartz is also featured
3. More on scenario planning is at Global Business Network (GBN), co-founded by Schwartz
4. Have a look at the World Economic Forum’s on-going scenario planning initiatives
5. Mats Lindgren’s ’09 book, Scenario Planning–The link between future and strategy
6. Bonus: An hour with Lee Kuan Yew, former PM-Singapore and author of ‘From Third World to First : The Singapore Story: 1965-2000′  on Charlie Rose (3/28/11)
7. Here’s a look at the Decision Support practice at my company, Osprey.

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Antonelli says that complexity is a driving force in today’s world.  Design, an intrinsically human-centric endeavor, helps people deal with that and other disruptive forces.  Designers, she thinks, are becoming the new intellectual pragmatists who must bring together an array of disciplines that need to converge to help us navigate complexity.

She discusses themes at the confluence of design, science and technology that affect future the way we refine our services the “day-after-tomorrow”.  It’s a terrific conversation.

> Related: Check out Paola Antonelli’s talk (’07) at TED in Monterrey, Treating Design as Art .

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But it turns out the best (read: game changing) tip on blogging came from Nora Ephron who advised Charlie Rose on how to do it. She said, “Sit down and write, and write it fast, and if you’ve been working on it for more than an hour and a half it’s not a blog. It’s something else and you’ve taken too long on it because it should really feel as if it’s true at that moment and then not much longer than that.”  Bingo.

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