Last July, Kenya became the first sub-Saharan country to launch an open data government site enabling its citizens to gain access to vital information. After only six months, Kenya’s Open Data Initiaitve (KODI) is still a work in progress, but it’s already reshaping Kenya’s culture of government.

When KODI was launched, Kenya was only the 22nd country with an open government portal. Today, 30 countries have live, open government sites, though dozens of other countries are in some stage of developing their own. Kenya’s early adoption is due in large part to the efforts of open data advocates both within Kenya’s government and among its influential technology community.

Whether Kenya’s open government will have a lasting, positive impact depends on how Kenyans use the information over time. But KODI’s successful launch illustrates what’s possible when government and technology converge to serve the needs of society.

Many stakeholders, one vision 

Last month, the World Bank released a detailed report about KODI that serves as a case study for open government advocates and practitioners everywhere. Among the takeaways, one can learn how a diverse group of stakeholders from the public, civic and private sectors coalesced to do something tough but important, despite their differences.

Gathering, structuring and publishing large data sets presented KODI’s developers with complex technical challenges. The portal makes available hundreds of data sets from the country’s 2009 census, and from health, education, infrastructure, water and sanitation services. The World Bank provided its development data.

Dr. Bitange Ndemo, Kenya’s Permanent Secretary of Information and Communications was the project driver with vigorous support from Paul Kukubo of Kenya’s ICT Board, and various government agencies.

To garner impetus and support, Ndemo forged a series of critical partnerships with the World Bank and Google, which both provided technical assistance, as well as with a host of local teams.

The platform is powered by Socrata, a Seattle-based company that fashions platforms for local, state and federal governments in the U.S., including open data sites for the city governments of Chicago and Seattle.

Choosing a U.S. firm’s platform rather than to use local developers raised initial concerns. But given the project’s aggressive timetable, the team settled on Socrata, one of only a few companies in the world with the capacity and experience in handling mammoth data sets.

Kenya’s celebrated technology community was instrumental in moving the project forward. Nairobi’s iHub, an “open space” community for developers, played a critical role, as did Ushahidi, the country’s homegrown crisis-mapping agency. (iHub developers built a mobile app enabling a user to locate Constituency Development fund projects and add images of them. The Ushahidi team mashed up census data with health services data on their Huduma site.)

Giant Leap forward

KODI’s launch marks a new chapter in Kenya’s government. Only four years after the country was rocked by post-election violence leaving 1,000 people killed and over a half a million displaced, Kenya fulfilled its mandate of providing citizens with unprecedented transparency and accountability.

Kenya’s President, Mwai Kibuki observed, “Data is the foundation of improving accountability and governance.” Dr. Ndemo tweeted, ”Data will fuel employment and wealth creation like never before.”

In his comments about the initiative, the The World Bank’s Tariq Khokhar, an open data evangelist, said, “Open data in Kenya is special: it comes at a time of national change; it’s got a head start on tools and expertise from the global open data community and it’s happening in a country where the information ecosystem is still maturing.”

The World Bank’s Country Director, Johannes Zutt remarked, “This portal is one of the first and largest government portals with reusable data in sub-Saharan Africa, making Kenya one of the world’s leading exemplars of open data.”

Alex Howard (@digiphile) of O’Reilly Media said, “Open Kenya isn’t simply about meeting data standards or publishing data online. Ultimately, it’s about changing the compact between citizens and their government.”

KODI’s development model can serve as a roadmap for other countries committed to realizing open government. Its successful launch is further proof that open government is an idea whose time has come.

At a time when politics is dictating social agendas in many countries, Kenya’s open government initiative is a testament to what a society can do when it focuses on what really matters.

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More on this subject?

Have a look at Alex Howard’s thorough piece, “GOV 2.0 2011 – Year in Review” and his earlier article, “Open Government Data to fuel Kenya’s App Economy”.  Here’s a post about KODI on the Ushahidi blog.

The OpenGovPartnership noted (1/31): “Now that Kenya has launched its open data portal, the OGP taskforce is becoming less focused on the programmers and more focused on civil society leadership. This week, Kenya’s open data initiative organized a workshop (with the World Bank and the African Media Initiative) for media leaders and journalists…”

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The New Year is a time to reflect on insights acquired in the past year and to contemplate their impact on what lies ahead. This season, my thoughts turn again to Africa, home of five of the world’s top 10 fastest growing economies. Africa’s mobile revolution is spawning exciting, new opportunities for entrepreneurs and engineers. For practitioners eager to experience the impact of their work, there’s no more dynamic and interesting place to be than Africa today.

With that in mind, I’d like to share three short but inspiring talks given in 2011 by three of Africa’s best and brightest pioneers. These trailblazers all began their careers in technology, but now they’re developing “platforms” in the broader sense, enabling a new generation of Africans to reshape their future.

Each speaker offers their unique perspective, but a common theme from all of the talks is that Africa is rising rapidly. Through their courage and determination, Africa’s trailblazers can inspire us all to persevere, whether we work on the continent or not.

Brief bios and video clips:

Patrick Awuah lived in the United States for two decades where he worked at Microsoft before returning to his native Ghana in 2002 to establish Ashesi University.

Ashesi’s mission is “to educate African leaders of exceptional integrity and professional ability”. ’Ashesi’ means “beginnings” in Akan, a language of the region.

With a focus on liberal arts, Ashesi offers courses in computer sceince, management information systems, and business administration.  Since its inception, the university has grown in size and stature. In 2011, Ashesi inaugurated its new campus in Berekuso near Ghana’s capital, Accra.

> His moving talk, The Spirit of the Time, was delivered at Zeitgeist Americas. “Education is about developing character,” he says of Ashesi’s approach to building the next generation of Africa’s leaders.

…

Erik Hersman lives in Kenya where he writes two influential technology blogs, White African and Afrigadget. He’s a Senior TED Fellow, a PopTech Fellow and an organizer of Maker Faire Africa.

During Kenya’s post-election crisis of 2007 – 2008, he helped to create Ushahidi, an open-source platform that tracked eyewitnesses reports of violence occurring in the country. Today, Ushahidi operates as a non-profit company which develops software for information collection, visualization and interactive mapping.

In 2010, Hersman co-founded iHub, an innovative “open space” for Nairobi’s technologists, tech firms and investors with over 6,000 members. In 2011 he co-founded m:lab, a regional mobile incubation lab.

> In his TechPop 2011 talk, Africa on the Rise, he asks, “If you’re an entrepreneur, why would you want to be anywhere else?” He added, “The sun isn’t rising on Africa, it’s risen on Africa.”

…

Juliana Rotich is another co-founder of Ushahidi where she serves as the organization’s executive director. She is the author of the Afromusing blog, a Senior TED Fellow, and a contributor to and editor of Global Voices Online.

She co-founded Mobisoko, a mobile marketplace for language and location-relevant apps in Africa. She was also an analyst with Hewitt Associates in Chicago.

> In her Wired 2011 talk, Rotich tells the story of Ushihidi’s launch and describes how the company’s crowdsourcing platform has been used to track crisis information around the world. ”We started in one country in Africa,” she says, “and now the platform is used in 132 countries.”

***

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Image courtesy of Dave Ley.

Related resources:

This NYT piece (1/11), “Transforming Africa through Higher Education” discusses Mr. Awuah’s vision and challenges in maintaining Ashesi University.

Here’s a clip featuring Ms. Rotich addressing the UN about Huduma, a Ushahidi pilot initiative launched in 2011 in which citizen reports about government services are collected and mashed up with census and healthcare institution data. More info on Huduma is found in this Guardian article.

Here are two previous posts (2010) on Ushahidi: Out of Africa, Help for Haiti and Kenya’s Tech Helps Chile, too.  And, Ingenuity Born of Necessity in Kenya (2011) featuring Mr. Hersman.

Add: Mr. Erik Hersman’s post (1/4/12), What’s on Tap for 2012?

More info on this subject?

Check out Vijay Mahajan’s ’09 book, Africa Rising.

For up-to-date info on Africa’s high-growth economies, visit the blog by the World Bank’s chief economist on Africa, and the superb, resource-rich Centre for African Economics.

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People doing business on an international stage faced unprecedented opportunities and challenges in 2011. 

Yet societies are demonstrating surprising capacities for resilience. Emerging economies are propelling an uneven global recovery from the Great Recession. Engineers in places like Nairobi, São Paulo and Doha are beginning to build export-worthy technologies.

Only a few years ago, these developments would have been hard to fathom. This is a momentous time for anyone engaged in cross-market projects. It’s only fitting that the year’s top books match the scale of the changes we’re witnessing.

Here’s a year-end roundup of books that define our times and guide practitioners with a global perspective:

Thinking Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman – The most influential social scientist of our time describes the two “systems” that shape our thinking and decision-making: ‘System 1′ is fast, intuitive, and emotional, while ‘System 2′ is slower, more deliberative, and logical. This seminal work reveals insights that have overturned traditional assumptions about metacognition.

“The Next Convergence: The Future of Economic Growth in a Multi-Speed World, by Michael Spence – The Nobel Laureate presents an elegant thesis to account for the current surge among emerging economies and its global impact.

Inside Egypt: The Land of the Pharaohs on the Brink of a Revolution, by John R. Bradley – A rich, beautifully written account of the socio-political dynamics in Egypt by a perceptive and appreciative observer.

Egypt after Mubarak: Liberalism, Islam, and Democracy in the Arab World, by Bruce Rutherford – A timely and incisive look at the complex political, economic and cultural forces shaping Egypt today.

The Party: The Secret World of China’s Communist Rulers, by Richard McGregor – An illuminating, inside look at past, present and future leaders of China’s impenetrable Politburo.

The Origins of Political Order, by Francis Fukuyama – This much-anticipated book by one of our most insightful and, at times, controversial political theorists was worth the wait. In the first of three projected volumes, Fukuyama describes the ways by which ideas have shaped political order.

The Price of Civilization, by Jeffrey Sachs – The outspoken Columbia University economist believes that the decline of American civic virtue is at hand. His poses what seems like an obvious question: Why has taxation become demonized? According to Sachs, taxes are the price we pay for civilization.

The Future of Power, by Joseph S. Nye – What are the forces and mechanisms shaping global power and how is society being affected by it?  Nye explores these questions and asserts that the U.S. and China have much to gain by deepening their cooperation.

Adapt: Why Success Always Starts with Failure, by Tim Harford (reviewed here) – The clever British economist demonstrates how effective trial-and-error leads to better results. In our world of complexity and unpredictability, learning from failure is imperative.

Civilization: The West and the Rest, by Niall Ferguson – The economist-provocateur explores a central question: “Why, beginning around 1500, did a few small polities on the western end of the Eurasian landmass come to dominate the rest of the world?” He posits that the West had six “killer apps”.

Monsoon*, by Robert Kaplan – A mind-bending journey across regions of the Indian Ocean which are growing in geostrategic importance as American power shifts gears. Ahmed Rashid aptly describes Kaplan as “a landscape artist who covers the world with extraordinary perception and insight”.

Emerging Africa–How 17 Countries are Leading the Way*, by Steven Radelet. The author, an economist, identifies the reasons for superior economic performance in some African countries. He concludes that the chief driver of economic development is an “interplay between economic reform and political change”.

The Dragon’s Gift – The Real Story of China in Africa*, by Deborah Brautigam – Brautigam debunks the standard myths about China’s aspirations and roles in Africa. It’s an indispensable read for anyone doing business on the continent.

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Endnotes:

* Denotes books published in 2010. (All others were published in 2011.)

Addendum:

Daniel Kahneman fans will likely appreciate his conversation with David Brooks at CUNY: video clip.

Another Kahneman resource is Michael Lewis’ Vanity Fair piece, “The King of Human Error”. Lewis writes:  “[Thinking, Fast and Slow] is wonderful, of course. To anyone with the slightest interest in the workings of his own mind, [the book]  is so rich and fascinating that any summary would seem absurd.”

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The misdeeds of Africa’s despots get plenty of media attention because they fit a Western “plug-n-play” narrative about the region. Conversely, the work of Africa’s exemplary leaders is often overlooked.

I’d offer the story of an extraordinary African leader determined to improve the quality of life in her nation. She is Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, who was recently appointed Nigeria’s Finance Minister.

During a previous stint in that role, she compiled a stunning record of economic reform. She was the first woman to serve as her country’s Finance Minister and as its Foreign Minister.

She’s an inveterate disruptor of the status quo who is guided by a vision for what’s possible and a zeal for instigating change.

Stories like hers give rise to an emergent narrative that’s being written by Africans. As she puts it, “This is the Africa of opportunity. This is the Africa where people want to take charge of their own futures and their own destinies.”

The Journey

Dr. Okonjo-Iweala has championed economic reform in her native Nigeria and on a global stage. Before accepting the job of Finance Minister for the second time, she served as the World Bank’s Managing Director. Her remarkable record of achievement is due to a formidable blend of intellect, creativity and steely tenacity.

Okonjo-Iweala tells the story of growing up in the Delta State near the Niger River during the Nigeria-Biafra war in the late 60′s. Her father fought on the Biafra side during the conflict as the family struggled to survive. At age fifteen, while her mother was ill, her three-year old sister became stricken with malaria.

She placed her sister on her back and walked 10 kilometers to a clinic. When they arrived, hundreds of people were queued at the entrance. Instead of waiting, Okonjo-Iweala made her way to the side of the building and climbed in through a window. “I knew if she didn’t get help she’d die.”

A doctor gave the baby a shot of chloroquine and re-hydrated her. Within hours, her sister had recovered. “The ten kilometers home with her on my back — that was the shortest walk of my life.”

Okonjo-Iweala’s journey had only begun. She went on to earn an undergraduate degree at Harvard and a Ph.D. in regional economics and development at MIT.

‘Trouble Woman’

Okonjo-Iweala was the mother of four children when she began her first stint as Finance Minister in 2003. Soon, she became known for rooting out corruption and making government more transparent.

She led a series of reforms including decoupling the country’s budget from the price of oil, Nigeria’s chief export, to end its perennial liquidity crisis. She led investigations into government corruption and sacked crooked officials.

In addition, she streamlined the country’s bloated public sector and led efforts to crack down on its notorious Internet and letter extortion scams. Oil companies were required to publish how much they paid the government.

As a result of her stringent measures, public trust in government skyrocketed and Nigeria became more attractive to foreign investment. While a majority of Nigerians embraced Okonjo-Iweala, she made enemies among the country’s anti-reformists.

“They called me Okonjo-Wahala [a play on her surname] — or Trouble Woman. It means ‘I give you hell’. But I don’t care what names they call me. I’m a fighter; I’m very focused on what I’m doing, and relentless in what I want to achieve. If you get in my way, you get kicked.”

Her tenacity served her well. In 2005, she spearheaded her government’s negotiations with the Paris Club of Creditors to pay down $30 billion USD of the country’s debt including the cancellation of $18 billion USD.

Before resigning her post in 2006, Okonjo-Iweala stabilized Nigeria’s currency and cut its inflation rate from 28 percent to about 11 percent. The country’s GDP grew to over 6 percent from 2.3 percent in the prior decade. She strengthened the country’s banks and recovered millions of dollars in stolen assets.

The Mandate

After leaving office, Okonjo-Iweala continued fighting for developing countries at the World Bank raising a record $49.3 billion USD through the Institutional Development Fund. She also had oversight of the Bank’s special food crisis fund helping countries impacted by high and volatile food prices. More than 40 million people in 44 countries around the world benefit from the fund.

Okonjo-Iweala reached her latest milestone on August 17, 2011 when Nigeria’s new president, Goodluck Jonathan, swore her in for her second term as Finance Minister.

This time she has a mandate for extirpating corruption. As a condition to accepting the job, she was granted expanded control over all aspects of the economy including oversight of its ministers.

Okonjo-Iweala’s job won’t be easy. Her mandate comes with lofty expectations. Nigeria’s growth rate remains high but much of its population of 140 million still lives on under $2 a day. Institutional corruption is pervasive.

“The expectation, not just for Nigerians but for the whole world, is quite high,” President Jonathan observed at her swearing in, according to AllAfrica.com.

“People expect so much from you. Some feel that you have the magic wand to change everything. I believe with your level of experience and the support we will give you and the cooperation of your colleagues, all of you collectively, will help to change our own country.”

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Headshot images: Courtesy of the World Bank/IMF Archives

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Want more info on this subject?

Here’s Dr. Okonjo-Iweala’s engaging ’07 TED Talk and a video clip in which she talks about facing Nigeria’s generals after recommending sizable defense spending cuts to fund education.

One of Dr. Okonjo-Iweala’s focus issues, not mentioned in the post, is South-South cooperation, i.e. fostering trade among developing nations.

“I Keep My Ego in My Handbag”, Guardian piece on  Dr. Okonjo-Iweala’s career, work ethic and family life. 

“Is Okonko-Iweala the DeFacto Prime Minister? AllAfrica.com op-ed (9/4/11).

Related but interesting:

Her son, Uzodinma Iweala, is the author of a critically acclaimed novel, Beasts of No Nation (2005). (Here is an audio reading by the author.)

Background:

Recommended for readers interested in Nigerian history – Peter Cunliffe-Jones’ crisp account, My Nigeria – Five Decades of Independence (2010).

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Most everyone interested in Africa’s connectivity revolution has seen the handiwork of Steve Song, a South African social entrepreneur who wants to make telecommunications accessible to more Africans. His iconic map of Africa’s undersea fiber optic cables is a visual narrative of the continent coming “on-line”.

When Song began the mapping exercise three years ago, his intent was to document the continent’s two or three existing cables in order to aid his work. Since then, the number of new undersea cables encircling Africa has burgeoned, and Song has faithfully revised his map.

While engineers and mobile operators rely on the map for technical purposes, Song has found that a wider audience has been using the map for a variety of reasons.

“My theory, for which I have no other evidence than the nature of the feedback I have received from users, is that the map paints a different-from-the-usual picture of Africa,” he observes.

“It’s not a picture of a dark continent but rather a brightly lit one, lit by terabits of light capacity brought by a dozen cables landing on sub-Saharan African shores either now or in the near future. Africa, the brilliant continent.  This also happens to be the Africa I believe in.”

The time-series version of Song’s map represents Africa’s digital divide being bridged as investment capital pours into the region.  Each iteration depicts incremental gains in Africa’s Internet access and associated reductions in the cost of access.

Terrestrial Edition

But Song’s undersea fiber map only chronicles bandwidth being supplied to Africa’s rim. Vast swathes of the continent’s interior have yet to be reached by terrestrial fiber, leaving gaps in coverage for millions of Africans. There are no maps that chart the Sub-Sahara’s complex terrestrial infrastructure.

Therefore Song decided to start mapping terrestrial cables, too. But that task will be daunting given that there are many more terrestrial lines than undersea cables. The good news is that Google Africa recently offered to lend a hand. The company is providing Song with much-needed funding and global information system (GIS) support.

Song dubbed the project ‘AFTerFibre‘ (Africa’s Terrestrial Fibres) which he hopes to complete by next year.  In the meantime, he’s set up a Google Group to encourage others to help fill in the missing pieces.

The implications of Google’s involvement are significant. The company recognizes the need for accelerating connectivity across borders, and they see mapping as a critical step in the process.

As the marketplace gets a more complete picture of Africa’s digital infrastructure, new opportunities for commercialization will result in Internet accessibility for more Africans while driving economic development across the continent.

Song says, “I hope that a map like this will inspire the same sort of local/regional projects in the way that undersea cables have inspired national fibre projects.”

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Map courtesy of Steve Song. His aptly-named blog, Many Possibilities, is a Touch Points ‘recommended resource’.

Additional info on this subject is found on the Tech4change blog. Here are facts and figures on bandwidth and fiber penetration in Africa.

Addendum (Aug 20-11): Afrinnovator’s Internet/Broadband (Fiber) ‘Pulse Check’ (Aug 6).  And, here’s Matt Berg at PopTech 2010 who sums it up best:  ”We have fiber.  We’re no longer sipping through a straw.”

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Here are my Summer Reading picks for those who go for both engaging narrative and penetrating insight. I’m recommending two distinctly different books by writers who don’t want to merely inform their readers; they want to shape the conversation. Both authors accomplished what they set out to do.

Tim Harford | Adapt – Why Success Always Starts with Failure

“Today’s challenges simply cannot be tackled with ready-made solutions and expert opinions; the world has become far too unpredictable and profoundly complex. Instead, we must adapt—improvise rather than plan, work from the bottom up rather than the top down, and take baby steps rather than great leaps forward.” ~Tim Harford

In his new book, Adapt – Why Success Always Starts with Failure, British economist Tim Harford of the Financial Times (The “Undercover Economist”) tackles a subject that’s close to my heart, the necessity of experimenting, failing and responding constructively to failure.

It’s become fashionable in recent years for American business writers to trumpet the virtues of failure. This is a radical departure from our culture’s traditional mythology where heroes walked with a swagger of infallibility. Today, we’re acknowledging that both trial and error play a key role in problem solving. Our new mantra is the old Japanese proverb: fall down seven times, stand up eight.

In Adapt, Harford argues that failure has always been useful in various ways, but in this age of complex challenges and pervasive fragility it’s vitally important. In our interconnected world where failure occurs frequently and its impact is more threatening, it’s imperative to recognize and adapt to errors.

“We face a difficult challenge,” he says. “The more complex and elusive our problems are, the more effective trial and error becomes, relative to the alternatives. Yet it is an approach that runs counter to our instincts.”

Harford, a trenchant storyteller, recounts several illustrative cases about how failure led to success. He tells how the U.S. military learned from its early tactical mistakes in Iraq to mount a more adaptive, successful counterinsurgency campaign.

In this instance, the takeaway for practitioners, both in and outside the military, is to do a better job transferring the “local knowledge” acquired in the field (or shop floor) to the command levels at their organizations.

Harford contends that there are three critical steps to failing and adapting successfully: Try new things knowing that some will invariably fail, make failures “survivable,” and be sure you know when you’ve failed. These steps apply to solving a wide range of problems.

Like Steven Johnson (Where Good Ideas Come From) who advances an elegant argument for innovating through experimentation, Harford builds a compelling case for intelligent tinkering. The trick isn’t to avoid mistakes at all cost but to learn and apply their lessons.

That our society is becoming comfortable with failure is a sign of maturity. It’s hard to fathom that until recently, admitting failure was rare, and encouraging it was anathema.

Sherry Turkle | Alone Together

In Alone Together — Why We Expect More from Technology And Less From Each Other, Sherry Turkle takes a critical look at how we interact with technology. Turkle is an author, clinical psychologist and an MIT scholar who leads MIT’s Initiative on Technology and Self.

After interviewing hundreds of adults and children, Turkle concludes that technology encourages people’s tendency to form superficial, less demanding on-line relationships in lieu of complicated, real bonds that are riskier and which require a greater investment of time and emotional energy. The implications, she concludes, merit our attention.

“Once we remove ourselves  from the flow of physical, messy, untidy life — and both robotics and networked life do that — we become less willing to get out there and take a chance,” she observes.

Teenagers are texting obsessively and many of us are shifting attention toward social networking and away from more substantial relationships. The consequences are troublesome for Turkle. She laments, “Networked, we are together, but so lessened are our expectations of each other that we can feel utterly alone.”

Turkle’s concerns echo those of Nicholas Carr, author of The Shallows, who contends that the Internet fosters a culture of surfing the Net rather than deep reading, and superficial thinking rather than focus and reflection. Like Carr, she asks us to consider the effects of how we use technology so that we can make choices that better serve our interests.

Despite the trends that she notices, Turkle is unaffected by the prospects. She’s not afraid that we’ll disengage entirely from real world relationships in a dystopian future, but she does think we ought to pay attention to how technology is mediating social ties.

Turkle encourages looking at behavior with a longer lens and drawing our own conclusions. The images are sometimes disquieting but her analysis is measured: “We’ve gone through tremendously rapid change, and some of these things just need a little sorting out.”

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Want more info on this subject?

Sherry Turkle on The Colbert Report; and an audio clip of Tim Harford interviewed by economist Russ Roberts of George Mason University.

A recent post (5/4/11) on how the U.S. military learned from failure, excerpt: The planners [of the SEAL mission in Abbottabad, Pakistan] had, in fact, learned from the disastrous rescue attempt of U.S. hostages in Tehran in 1980 that was undermined by a helicopter accident. Learning from prior mistakes is essential in effective contingency planning.

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Using a longer lens

It’s been twenty years since the publication of Peter Schwartz’s insightful primer about scenario planning, The Art of the Long View. In the book, Schwartz makes a convincing case for using scenario planning in approaching strategic challenges of various kinds.

Schwartz, who led scenario planning efforts at Shell, Motorola, and Pacific Gas and Electric, concluded that the technique could be applied to handling the emergent complex threats that companies were confronting in the 90′s.

Since then, the world has grown radically more complex, more uncertain. Globalization and the Internet have woven together our institutions so that a crisis in one corner of the world can spread virally with far-reaching consequences.

Cascading consequences

We now live in a world where an unknown street vendor in an obscure Tunisian village sets himself on fire and a few weeks later the dictatorial regime in Egypt collapses. Those events triggered spiraling oil prices which boosted worldwide food and commodity prices with a cascade of far-reaching consequences.

While leaders can’t predict the next cataclysmic event, they must now contend with a wider range of plausible, discontinuous threats. Failure to do so can imperil their institutions.

In a world where traditional, linear thinking is inadequate, scenario planning is a platform for enabling problem solvers to explore the question: “Given what we know, and what we don’t know, what should we do now?”

That’s a significant question, but it’s not enough to simply ponder significant questions. Problem-solvers must also overcome the internal barriers – psychological as well as physical – which can paralyze organizations when the stakes are high. Scenario planning provides a context for examining assumptions and biases, and for avoiding the denial that ensues when facing existential threats.

Schwartz observes, “When decision-makers begin to look at the future, denial acts as an automatic shut-off valve: ‘I can’t consider that…’ A good scenario asks people to suspend their disbelief long enough to appreciate its impact.”

The Singapore Miracle

One of the more celebrated scenario planning cases is the Singapore story. That nation’s government first used the technique to help build its nascent entrepreneurial society in the 70’s and 80’s, and later to cope with a string of discontinuous shocks that threatened its economy including the Asian financial crisis of the 90’s.

Since then, Singapore has embedded the technique in its strategic planning efforts. Scenario thinking helped its leaders to recognize that in a region increasingly dominated by its giant neighbor, China, their nation must become an innovative technology hub. (Singapore’s mantra says it best: Anticipate change, stay relevant.) As a result, the government is investing $12 billion USD in technology R & D over five years — a 20% spending increase — to attract gifted engineers and entrepreneurs.

Lessons from the field

My own experience with scenario planning in a variety of settings has been overwhelmingly positive. It remains one of the more advanced tools in the strategic arsenal. My appreciation of the practice has only grown over time.

I’ve learned this: Convene the right problem-solvers under the right circumstances and they’ll reach a shared understanding, despite differences in perspective. Scenario planning helps organizations to recognize threats, opportunities and weak signals, and it often leads to practical solutions that everyone in the room can support.

When The Art of the Long View was published in ’91, scenario planning was deemed a novel technique for organizations facing rare and unusually complex issues. Today, most of our pressing challenges are laced with complexity — that’s our new reality.

If we’re going to prepare for what’s next, let’s bring in our sharpest minds and give them the tools to move the enterprise forward. I’m pleased to report that scenario planning is still the right tool for the job.

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As always, I’d appreciate hearing your views…

Want more info on this subject?

1. One of the more interesting critiques of Schwartz’s book is found in a video dialogue between Niall Ferguson and Schwartz
2. Here’s an insightful talk (video clip), The Singapore Miracle & Gov 2.0, by Peter Ho, Singapore’s former head of civil service, who explains his country’s work with scenario planning. Peter Schwartz is also featured
3. More on scenario planning is at Global Business Network (GBN), co-founded by Schwartz
4. Have a look at the World Economic Forum’s on-going scenario planning initiatives
5. Mats Lindgren’s ’09 book, Scenario Planning–The link between future and strategy
6. Bonus: An hour with Lee Kuan Yew, former PM-Singapore and author of ‘From Third World to First : The Singapore Story: 1965-2000′  on Charlie Rose (3/28/11)
7. Here’s a look at the Decision Support practice at my company, Osprey.

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The uprisings in the Arab world are capturing worldwide attention not only because we’re witnessing history in the making, but because the changes are bound to affect us all. We live in a world that’s interconnected in ways that were hard to fathom only a few years ago. Interconnectedness is creating new challenges with social implications that traditional institutions and leaders aren’t equipped to handle.

The clashes across the Middle East and North Africa are only the latest example of unforeseen events that reverberate across regional boundaries. Before that, the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the U.S. sparked a deep global recession that affected more sectors than anything economists had seen before. As some economies began recovering during the following year, Europe’s mounting debt crisis triggered  a cascade of new problems in distant economies.

Today’s challenges, geopolitical or otherwise, are more difficult to predict, understand and handle than the kinds of problems we’ve seen until recently. As the world grows more interconnected, we become more exposed to what design theorists Horst Rittel and Melvin Webber called “wicked problems” which are substantially harder to define and solve than so-called “tame” problems.

Force Majeure

Wicked problems are a major force in today’s world. Many of us working on a global stage recognize that the kinds of challenges we face now are wicked by nature. Tackling them requires greater creativity and cooperation with our peers. Solving wicked problems is the defining challenge of our age.

Wicked problems are vexing because they have multiple, interrelated causes that can’t be solved by traditional tools and methods.  They are, by definition, unique and novel.  Wicked problems occur in a social context where stakeholders tend to disagree about the underlying causes thus hampering efforts to reach an effective solution.

Wicked problems affect nearly every organization and leader today, yet many leaders honed their problem-solving skills when most issues could be readily circumscribed and methodically solved.

Roger Martin observes, “There was a time when leaders shared a sense that the problems they faced could be managed through the application of well-known rules and linear logic.  Those days are gone.  Most of today’s important problems have a significant wicked component, making progress impossible if we persist in applying inappropriate methods and tools to them.”

Lean-software developer Mary Poppendieck puts it another way:  “The easy problems have been solved.  Designing systems is difficult because there is no consensus on what the problems are, let alone how to solve them.”

Wicked problems demand new ways of collaborating. Wicked problem-solvers must first seek to gain a common understanding with their counterparts. The new skills required include self-reflection, consensus-building and mobilizing others. My hunch is that relational competencies will be more critical measures of future leaders.

“Wicked problems call for us to harness all the creativity and knowledge at our disposal,” says Martin.  “Whether we choose to fight one another or work together to confront threats and opportunities, our fate and common wealth are in our hands.”

***

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Want more?

Check out the University of Toronto Rotman School’s Rotman Magazine, WINTER 2009, “Wicked Problems” including a feature by John Camillus (“Strategy as a Wicked Problem”) and an interview with Jeff Conklin of CogNexus.  Conklin identifies six characteristics of wicked problems:

1. The problem is not understood until after the formulation of a solution
2. Wicked problems have no “stopping rule”
3. Solutions to wicked problems are not right or wrong
4. Every wicked problem is essentially novel and unique
5. Every solution to a wicked problem is a “one shot operation”
6. Wicked problems have no given alternative solutions

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As our society debates the need for more civil discourse, we’re underplaying the value of competing perspectives among our leaders. I’m a fan of rival leaders who can come together despite their differences to redefine their company’s mission.

For institutions grappling with deep change, there’s no better way to start than by assembling a coalition of leaders and entrusting them to set a new direction. When the stakes are high, a team of diverse, tough-minded leaders reaching a consensus can yield resoundingly productive results.

The process of reaching a consensus can often be unwieldy, even chaotic. But when stakeholders committed to a clear, common goal set aside their own narrow interests, breakthroughs do occur.

I’ve been called upon to participate in initiatives ranging from revamping an airline’s on-time performance to labor negotiations in which the company’s survival was in the balance.  I’ve learned that assembling the right people under the right circumstances can shift the thinking and reverse the course of a company.

Vision, purpose and a sense of urgency

One of the more brilliant minds on this subject is John P. Kotter of Harvard Business School. He coined the term ‘guiding coalition’ to refer to a cadre of leaders who share a common vision, clarity of purpose and an acute sense of urgency for taking action.

Why should a CEO assemble a guiding coalition when it’s much easier to merely impose change? Kotter thinks that one strong leader cannot make change happen alone. Instead, the chief executive ought to build a coalition of leaders who appreciate the enormity of the challenge and have the credibility to win over their harshest critics. A shared desire to transform the business can bind leaders who might otherwise compete uncompromisingly.

What can a team of rival leaders do that other practitioners can’t? Despite their differences, leaders as the stewards of the company bring a wider perspective and a longer lens view of the enterprise. They can arrive at a solution that is practical but which requires that the organization stretch to meet new demands. In the process, mutual commitment among the key players is strengthened.

In the clutch

It’s crucial to keep in mind that the conversation may, at times, get derailed. In pressure-filled situations, common ground seems to fade and intractable battles ensue.  Headstrong leaders can have a difficult time relinquishing their positions. In such moments, using a guiding coalition can seem like an incredibly bad idea.

However, under the tyranny of the clock and the pressure to produce, tough-minded leaders can demonstrate uncanny capacities for ingenuity, imagination and outright creativity. True leaders perform at their peak when the stakes are highest.

Witnessing a coalition of leaders fiercely committed to moving their enterprise forward is an unforgettable lesson in human nature.

***

As always, I’d appreciate your thoughts on this subject…

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Want more information?

John P. Kotter’s  ’08 book, A Sense of Urgency, is an excellent study on finding opportunity in crisis.

Putting this notion in a historical context, Doris Kearns Goodwin’ s book, Team of Rivals, profiles Abe Lincoln and the five key players he picked for his cabinet — four of whom contended for the 1860 Republican presidential nomination which Lincoln won. (A prior post on leadership references the book.).

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Turning the page…

Another interesting year is rapidly winding down. This year, I had the chance to work with many gifted business and tech leaders, but it was particularly satisfying collaborating with innovators in developing regions — the Sub-Sahara, the Middle East and South Asia.

It’s time for Western multinational companies — especially those in the customer-facing sectors — to enter developing markets where consumer-led growth is robust but capital and resources are in short supply.

Many Westerners have misconceptions about working in emerging markets. For example, they assume that the transfer of knowledge flows only in one direction — from us to them. But our clients in developing regions bring a keen understanding of their markets and what’s needed to elevate their businesses. We typically learn as much from them as they do from us.

Innovation Hothouses

Some of the most interesting business and technology breakthroughs are now coming from developing markets which have become hothouses of disruptive innovation. Behold the $2,500 car, the $25 business hotel room and the $25 mobile handset that provides service for just 2.5 cents a minute.

Developing innovators are finding novel ways for using mobile phones to perform vital functions like transferring money, paying bills, monitoring elections, diagnosing and treating illnesses, and buying and selling food. Each of these breakthroughs was created by inventive, driven entrepreneurs and engineers to improve the lives of consumers in their markets.

Those who aspire to work with innovators in developing regions must recognize the unique challenges that they face.  While conditions are generally improving, operators are often grappling with government red tape, dodgy distribution networks and difficulty securing credit. They demonstrate in quotidian ways how to overcome the kinds of constraints that would crush many Western enterprises.

Price of Admission

To contribute to and benefit from opportunities in emerging regions demands the wise use of capital, talent and resources. Understanding the market and culture are essential. Patience and perseverance are crucial.

Working in these markets also obliges us to give a portion of our time and resources to lend a helping hand where it’s needed the most. Whether that means donating digital equipment to bridge information gaps or mentoring a new generation of leaders, each of us can have a lasting impact.

Serving developing markets isn’t for everyone. For those who are fiercely determined to make a meaningful contribution on a global stage, the rewards outweigh the inconveniences.

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Want more?

I suggest a book, Winning in Emerging Markets, by two Harvard professors, Tarun Khanna and Krishna Palepu. They write, “Companies with ambitious emerging market growth strategies have no choice but to engage deeply with these economies – but the complex nature of these markets has made success elusive.”

Also have a look at McKinsey On Africa — a continent on the move, a “box-set” of essays and interviews about the opportunities and challenges in Africa.

In prior posts I’ve looked at how mobile phones are being used in emerging markets including in this tribute to Professor C. K. Prahalad who died earlier this year. His sage advice resonates. “Focus on becoming part of global citizenry. In exchange for the opportunity to participate everywhere/anywhere in the world you have the obligation to do something productive, which will improve the world.”

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Out of the East

Asia’s growing influence in Africa is receiving worldwide attention. China’s investment in Africa will top $100 billion dollars this year making it the continent’s biggest trading partner. There are 800 Chinese companies with over 4 million Chinese people living and working there. China’s impact on Africa, as author Richard Dowden observed, is the biggest economic shift of the twenty-first century.

Now, the story of Asia’s push into Africa is being revised to highlight players from India. In June, Bharti Airtel, India’s largest mobile carrier – the 5^th largest telecom in the world – bought Kuwait-based Zain’s operations in 16 African countries for $10.7 billion in cash.

Bharti has been eager to grab a piece of Africa’s growing mobile market for some time. In 2009, it tried to buy MTN, Africa’s largest carrier, but the deal failed due to regulatory roadblocks. Undeterred, Bharti pivoted quickly setting its sights on Zain.  By June, Bharti bagged its African trophy, though some analysts thought it paid too much for Zain’s assets.

The Bharti Recipe

Bharti didn’t waste any time plotting its next moves. By September, the carrier had chosen IBM, a partner since 2004, to run its network and IT for its 2G and 3G services in a 10-year deal worth over $1.7 billion.  IBM will manage the company’s data centers, servers and desktop operations.

This week, Bharti announced its selection of two Indian outsourcing specialists, Tech Mahindra and Spanco, to run its back office and customer care operations in Africa.

With its coalition of outsourcing partners in place, Bharti aims to streamline its sub-Saharan operation and cut costs to service Africa’s low-income markets. The carrier hopes to grow its 36 million subscriber base to over 100 million by 2012.

That’s an ambitious plan considering that Bharti will only control the product development, brand management and marketing portions of its business. Bharti thinks that these are the only functions essential to differentiating its offerings.

Multinational carriers have been relying on “managed services” companies that specialize in providing technology and customer care. Bharti pioneered and refined the managed services strategy in India for nearly a decade. Their model is considered an industry prototype.

The African Factor

Bharti’s gambit in Africa is unique in several critical ways: Africa is Bharti’s first market beyond the Indian sub-continent. The African market is both large and amazingly diverse. The sheer scale and complexity of their African foray is raising a critical question among industry analysts: Can a company, even one as disciplined as Bharti, get its arms around such a diverse amalgam of people, cultures and processes?

Jai Menon, group director of IT at Bharti thinks it can. He told the Economic Times of India: “The system was built in India and did operate in geographies where the diversity is huge — be it culture, language, devices and affordability. It will be the same across Africa. This system will address the entire pyramid, and not just the top or bottom of the pyramid.”

It will be interesting to watch Bharti choreograph its operations while launching its brand across Africa’s disparate social, economic and political cultures.They’ve begun by hiring African personnel from other carriers to assume key roles. Bharti will need to recruit more African talent to build a business culture that can realize the company’s aspirations.

Bharti brings to Africa an uncanny knack for squeezing out costs. India has been a hothouse for cultivating their scalable, ultra low-cost model.  If we’ve learned anything, it’s that Africa will likely present new and unexpected challenges.  In any case, Indian companies, led by Bharti Airtel, are emerging as major players in Africa.

***

As always, I’d appreciate your perspective.

…………………………………………………………

Want more info?

The Economic Times of India’s (Oct 26)  piece : “Bharti splits $500 mn Africa deal among IBM, Tech Mahindra and Spanco”.

Bharti Airtel & IBM described their plan for Africa in joint video press release .

Want more context?

Richard Dowden’s quote in the post’s opening paragraph is from his ’08 book, Africa – Altered States, Ordinary Miracles.  His section (Ch 17) “Asia in Africa – new colonists or old friends?” sketches Asia’s  long  history in Africa. He writes, “India is following China’s path. Though its rise is less dramatic.  In a few years time maybe every reference to China in this chapter would be followed by ‘ and India’.”

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It’s been a hectic summer crisscrossing the Atlantic on planes. I enjoy catching up on reading during long flights but hate schlepping books, so the iPad is a Godsend.  One of my favorite resources is WIRED Magazine’s app developed by Adobe Digital.

The app lives up to its hype of providing an immersive, highly interactive experience.  Gorgeous images and crisp typography rotate with the device, and the layout is sexy.  Apps like this are transforming the way we experience information, and we ought to be mindful of that.  The implications are enormous.

This isn’t an app review, but rather an observation and a suggestion that digital publications like WIRED Magazine are having a profound impact on our aesthetic sensibilities. “The iPad effect” is changing the way we experience information and there are implications for all of us interested in connecting with our audiences.

Death by and of PowerPoint

Curiously, the idea for this piece came not from something I viewed on an iPad, but on a conference room screen where PowerPoint slides were presented by a software vendor.  The salesman, “Frank” (not his real name), was trying to convince my colleagues and me to buy his company’s well-known, hosted CRM software.

The slides were mind-numbingly predictable. An “agenda” slide was followed by seemingly endless “features and benefits” in bullet form, followed by the predictable “next steps” which, thankfully, signaled the end of the ordeal.  Sound familiar?  I remember looking at my watch and thinking, “Forty-five precious minutes lost forever.”

Of course Frank’s intent was to convince us of his “value proposition,” but I came away with the impression that his company is out of touch. His pitch created doubt in my mind about the brand.

Sadly, I’ve endured countless corporate slide decks like that before, but I don’t recall ever feeling such aversion. The contrast with the sleek tablet apps I’d been seeing made Frank’s presentation seem like a relic from the Industrial Age. The starkness of the contrast is the “the iPad effect”.

Design-forward apps are exposing us to more compelling images and interactive features, and we who rely on presenting information to influence audiences ought to take notice.

Redesigning Design

The need for rethinking our presentations isn’t new.  Edward Tufte and, more recently, Garr Reynolds (the Presentation Zen guy) have been preaching — often to the converted — about how and why our presentations need a makeover. The “information architecture” movement has been raising awareness about design literacy for decades.

But old habits die hard. Despite the consciousness-raising, ‘Death by PowerPoint’ still takes a heavy toll in business. Now comes the iPad to show us what’s possible. A new visual design zeitgeist is emerging and there’s no going back.

This is just the beginning — this is the first generation of iPad apps. The designers are figuring out how to make the next iteration sleeker and more interactive. Subsequent generations of apps with more alluring layouts are on the horizon.

What are the implications? It’s time to put the old paradigm to rest. Design is the next frontier, and that’s good news for those of us craving a change.

***

What do you think? As always, I’d love to hear your views on this subject.

……………………………………………………………………….

Want more info?

Some brilliant ideas concerning the “design behind the design” are found on Boxes and Arrows. Related: design thinking helps us to radically re-imagine the way we solve problems in business. The design firm, IDEO, has some terrific resources.

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It feels like we’re at the dawn of a new era in understanding how people — namely our customers — make decisions, and some businesses will benefit enormously. More importantly, customers will soon enjoy more kinds of services designed to better meet their needs.

Our collective thinking is being informed by discoveries in behavioral sciences and behavioral economics about the role of the unconscious mind and the centrality of emotions in driving behavior. Many of these findings are now verifiable through neuroimaging tools.

Among other things, we’re realizing that people aren’t Vulcan-like beings who make choices on a cold, purely rational basis. Individuals — our customers — are complicated and swayed by factors beneath the level of consciousness.

Insights about how people are wired have been rolling in for decades. But lately, these insights have penetrated the mainstream consciousness due, in part, to the popular writers like Ori and Rom Brafman (Sway) and Dan Ariely (Predictably Irrational), among others, who are distilling social science discoveries for mass audiences.

These findings aren’t causing companies to rethink their missions—not yet, anyway. Delta Airlines and Verizon aren’t transforming their business models to accommodate social science breakthroughs, but a subtle and profound shift is occurring.

Out with the old…

I’ve been encountering more clients lately who are moving away from outmoded assumptions about service and toward conducting research to learn what factors drive their customers behavior. Instead of relying on the “if you build it, they will come” principle, businesses are trying to figure out precisely why their customers are buying, or not.

For example, the traditional service model emphasized customer satisfaction (“C-Sat”) which many practitioners still believe is predictive of repurchasing behavior. C-Sat has been universally regarded as a proxy for service quality, but research shows that emphasizing satisfaction alone is an overly narrow focus.  Multiple drivers, unique to each context, play a far greater role in influencing customer loyalty.

In fact, research shows that customers will tell a service provider that they’re ‘satisfied’ yet switch away from the brand for any number of reasons.  Ironically, a majority of people who defect reported that they were ‘satisfied’.

Recently, my team assisted a U.S. retailer that had been suffering from declining retention rates. The company wasn’t aware that their new interactive voice response (IVR) menu frustrated customers who’d been reporting that they were ‘satisfied’ overall.  By asking exacting questions and conducting a proper analysis, the company was able to prevent further market damage.  The fix turned out to be cheap, simple and quick.

The big news isn’t that companies are rejecting C-Sat, but that they’re taking a refreshingly thoughtful, behaviorally-grounded view of their customers which is opening the door for interesting, potentially sweeping changes.

Not so long ago, presenting behavioral research to the “C-suite” caused their eyes to glaze over. Now, forward-thinking leaders are requesting this information to support their business decisions.

What’s next?

It does feel like we’re entering a new era in understanding customers, but we’re only in its nascent stages. Applied behavioral psychologists don’t yet have a seat at the table, but the business community generally seems to be more receptive to their findings.

I think we’ll recognize the next stage when traditional organizations focus on using behavioral research to design services that are more compatible with human needs. Until then, keep your eye on the agile, innovative companies who are internalizing insights about their customers.  You’ll recognize them by their customers who are enjoying richer, more immersive service experiences and returning for more.

***

As always, I’d love to hear your views on this subject….

……………………………………………………………………….

Want more info on this subject?

Scholars who are contributing to the growing body of social sciences and economics knowledge include Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman, Richard Thaler, and Robert Shiller.

Here’s info about my company’s (Osprey) decision-support services and Customer Insight Lab.

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Downtown Cape Coast, Ghana

Pulsating business scene

I spent the last couple weeks on assignment in Accra, Ghana. On this trip, I’ve seen more growth than any time since my company started working there in ’07. This is a period of unprecedented business activity and promising new projects within and beyond the mobile sector.  Meanwhile, new competitors from around the world are streaming in. This corner of Africa’s business scene is pulsating.

Astute businesses here are taking steps to preserve their client base and deepen relationships with their customers. We’re privileged to work with a new generation of African business leaders with the courage and determination to transform their offerings to meet the needs of an emerging class of consumers.

These are exciting times to work with African business leaders who take seriously their mandate for investing in new technologies and business practices.  We’re helping them gain competitive advantages by improving the service systems that support touch points, by adding new service channels, and by harvesting business intelligence, among other initiatives.

Building competitiveness

The most effective strategy for businesses to gain a competitive edge here is to understand and meet the customer needs better than their rivals.  Forward-thinking leaders here know that competing on service will help preserve their customer base and attract new customers even as the marketplace grows more crowded with aggressive new entrants.

Developing insights about customers’ preferences and purchasing drivers helps companies here achieve competitiveness as well as profitability.

It also creates jobs. Thriving regional businesses are Africa’s greatest engine of job creation and economic growth.  That’s why we’re committed to collaborating with leading African businesses, knowing that their success means more jobs and higher living standards across the region.

What it takes to work here

This question comes up frequently in my circles. I think Western companies operating here require a distinctive set of leadership and communication skills. Traditional business skills are necessary but not sufficient to address the complexity and scale of challenges on this continent.

But what’s needed for Western companies to operate effectively in this environment? We’ve explored this question with business leaders in various sectors as well as academics, entrepreneurs, and technology innovators.

Our conclusion is that it’s not enough to bring an open mind. We must be skillful listeners. That means checking our assumptions at the door and listening with the intention of gaining deeper insights about the market and, most importantly, the customer.  Deep collaboration with partners and clients is key.

Africa’s dynamism and complexity require going beyond merely tolerating ambiguity. Ambiguity, a ubiquitous feature here, must be embraced.  “Leaning into” uncertainty is critical to problem-solving in this market.

It’s critical to drop the need for control, otherwise it’s tough to handle the inherent ‘push-pull’ of a region that’s steeped in tradition while it grows so rapidly.

The ability to consider competing, often “fuzzy” options helps us work with stakeholders here to produce the imaginative, yet practical solutions that the region demands.

Finally, operating in the region requires extraordinary levels of patience and perseverance.  Change rarely happens in sweeping strokes here. Instead change occurs through “successive approximations”.  One step forward, two back but always moving ahead.  Patience — never my strongest card — is essential.  (Note: I’m working on it.)

People, Process and Technology – Redux

Succeeding here requires mastery in choreographing people, process and technology, and we help clients focus on all three dimensions — what we refer to as “service systems”.  Of the three, ‘people’ is the most critical and challenging to optimize.

Africa’s leading companies are now investing heavily in their people because they know, in the end, that this the only sustainable ‘differentiator’.

On this trip, I observed how one company in particular, a leading business process outsourcer and partner, transformed its organization into a high performance business by nurturing its talent.  It accomplished this feat by fostering competition among its teams while encouraging buy-in and autonomy among team members.

Watching their evolution over time has been both heartening and instructive. Today, I’d stack them up against any competitor in the world. This kind of innovative, customer-focused organization is poised to meet the needs of customers in any market.

Lessons from Africa

Like all prior trips to Africa, this one was a valuable learning experience on several levels.  I encountered a new generation of leaders and was impressed by their willingness to invest in becoming more competitive. The vitality of the continent’s nascent mobile-web industry is breathtaking.  Keep an eye on this exciting space…

I also learned more about my company on this journey. I’m reminded that what separates us from our peers is our passion for and commitment to producing substantial results for our clients and their customers across the sub-Sahara.  It’s energizing to work on a continent of one billion people whose economic growth is only surpassed by China, and I never forget what a rare opportunity it is.

***

What do you think?  I’d appreciate hearing your perspective.

………………………………….

Want more info on this subject?  You’re not alone.  There’s a plethora of books about conflicts and coups in Africa, but there are fewer resources about doing business on the continent.  I’ve previously recommended Paul Collier’s ’07 book, The Bottom Billion, which remains relevant.

In ’07, TED organized Africa: The Next Chapter, a series of talks which included the first TED conference held on the continent.  The series featured a stellar lineup of speakers on a range of topics about Africa.  Since then, TED has added new presentations about business development in Africa to the series, and  I heartily recommend it.

Here are some of my prior posts about the sub-Sahara.

I’d appreciate hearing your recommendations about resources on this topic.

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Evening at Cape Point on the tip of South Africa

While the business world is preoccupied with the global economic recovery, a mobile revolution is quietly reshaping the marketplace in the developing world. In Africa, mobile phones are providing access to communications for millions of people who’ve never had fixed communications let alone cell phones. I’ve written before about the impact that such ‘leapfrogging’ is having on African business.  Now, we’re beginning to see exciting and substantial commercial projects taking shape, particularly in the service sector.

By the numbers

To call this a ‘revolution’ is hardly hyperbole. Consider the scale of mobile industry’s growth in Africa. According to a recent report by the International Telecommunications Union, the number of mobile subscribers skyrocketed from 5% of Africa’s population in 2003 to over 30% by the end of 2008.  Today, some 400 million Africans have mobile phones — that’s 100 million more than in North America.

Since only a third of Africa’s billion people have handsets, there’s plenty of room for more growth ahead. But, the interesting story, I think, is how the mobile phone is already remodeling African economies and creating promising, new opportunities for businesses and individuals in the region.

Mobile phones are enabling rural and low income people to join the economy while creating a stable infrastructure for businesses and emerging consumer markets.  Mobile communications are making it possible for new services to develop and thrive.

At the junction of mobile and web

Africa’s mobile subscribers are using handsets to access services that consumers in developed markets typically get from the fixed internet. The junction of mobile and web is a green field for inventive engineers and entrepreneurs.

New, innovative mobile applications are being developed in sectors ranging from banking, agriculture and fishing, medical, education, to government and non-profits.  It seems that every week, we read about a novel way that mobile technology is being used to meet the consumer needs.

M-banking, as mobile-banking is known, is arguably Africa’s most successful mobile-enabled service sector so far. Last year, m-banking initiatives were launched in almost every country across the continent. As banks and mobile operators join forces to deliver m-banking programs, Visa and MasterCard are watching the sector closely hoping to ‘leapfrog’ into markets where no viable payment infrastructure currently exists.

Kenya’s Safaricom was one of the first mobile operators anywhere to roll out an m-banking program, M-Pesa. Originally it was used solely for money transfer but Kenyans are increasingly using M-Pesa to pay their utility bills.

Taking this a step further, m-banking is enabling another layer of services — known as ‘m-commerce’ — where goods and services can be bought, sold or traded. In remote regions where the fixed-line communications are thin or non-existent, m-commerce can enable buyers and sellers of goods and services to find each other.

What’s next?

As new land-based and submarine cable deployments slated for later this year make 3G widely available in many parts of Africa, we’re likely to see m-commerce grow which should mean more investment by the business community and, ultimately, more jobs for Africans and improvements in their quality of life.

Africa’s mobile revolution is bringing as many challenges as opportunities. Governments on the continent must keep pace with dynamic mobile economy by taking courageous steps to encourage outside business investments.   African governments must develop templates for working collaboratively with businesses to enable their citizens to enjoy the benefits of the mobile revolution.

One thing is clear: there’s no stopping the growth of the mobile industry in developing markets, especially in Africa. The mobile phone is helping to put the continent on a path toward greater economic sustainability.  I find it utterly fascinating to see how innovative businesses and imaginative people are harnessing the power of connectivity in Africa.

***

As always, I’d love to know your perspective.

…………………………………………………………….

Want more info?  Here’s an October ’09 piece in the Guardian, “Africa Calling…” and a New York Times article from the same period.

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One of the more satisfying experiences at year’s end is reaching out to clients, partners and colleagues to thank them for their business and their stalwart support.  It’s even sweeter this time while reflecting on an entire decade going back to the early days of my business.

We come from different cultures and work backgrounds, but what binds us together is an abiding interest in bringing value to our customers, and clearing the hurdles that come with that mandate.  My mission has been to gain a deeper understanding of  what customers need and designing solutions for delivering it. My commitment to that mission is stronger than ever.

I can’t say for sure what’s next in business trends — no one can — and I’m not offering my top ten predictions. But, if past is prologue, we’ll need to be more imaginative, collaborative, and courageous than ever.  We can and we will, because we must.

Every project offers a fresh opportunity to do something that’s never been done before, and there’s nothing more thrilling that that.  I’m excited about new projects on the horizon waiting to be cracked.

Looking back, trips to developing regions like the sub-Sahara are reminders that we who are fortunate to be doing what we enjoy must recognize the steeper challenges faced by others. We’re obliged to devote a fair portion of our time and resources to reducing the suffering of others.

So, there’s much to be done.  Let’s get on with it…

I wish you a Healthy and Prosperous New Year!

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