Nairobi Skyline

“This is the future of African technology, and if you blink, you’ll miss it.”  ~Erik Hersman

On the ‘Silicon Savanna’

Last month in Nairobi, Kenya, a conference called Pivot25 connected 25 promising mobile app developers from East Africa with investors and venture capitalists. Events like this one, based on the Y Combinator model, give aspiring developers a rare chance to pitch their ideas for possible seed capital.

What’s intriguing about Pivot25 is the attention that it drew from outside the region. TIME Magazine ran a piece about the conference from the standpoint of Nairobi’s contribution to global technology. CNN’s Global Public Square covered the event, too. Why so much attention?

It’s due to Nairobi’s growing reputation as a hotbed of mobile software development. The city has earned the moniker ‘Silicon Savanna’ due to high-profile, innovative mobile ventures launched there including Ushahidi, the ‘open source’ crisis-mapping platform, and M-Pesa, the world’s first mobile money service — a model for ‘access to banking’ services.

Both platforms were originally modest, homegrown solutions for local problems that were later widely adopted outside the region. The global tech community is expecting stellar performers in Nairobi’s next wave of apps and services, too.

The right stuff

On the surface, Nairobi may not look like a prime contender to be the next ICT hub. With a population of 3.5 million, it’s only the 12th largest city on the continent, but it’s one of East Africa’s most vital commercial and cultural centers.

Incubators are springing up in Lagos, Accra, Dakar and other large African cities, but Nairobi stands out due to the top-tier multinational firms using the city as a base for serving Africa’s booming mobile markets.

Nairobi is becoming known for its vibrant community of mobile developers whose ingenuity and confidence are growing over time. Their cleverly designed apps — elegant in their simplicity — are now part of Africa’s social landscape.

The city is also home to a small, vocal cadre of tech advocates who’ve trumpeted their community’s early wins, convincing audiences around the world that there’s more innovation on the way. The impact of potent advocacy is often overlooked when observers speculate about why Nairobi has the right stuff to be the epicenter of mobile technology.

An ‘ecosystem built on talent’

One of Nairobi’s more influential advocates is Erik Hersman, co-founder of Ushahidi, and founder of iHub (‘innovation-Hub’), an open-space tech incubator with over three thousand members. He contends that Nairobi’s pool of gifted developers is responsible for the region’s dominance.

“It’s an ecosystem built on talent,” he said in an interview with TNW Africa. “Nairobi is exploding with world-caliber techies, and companies such as Google, Cisco, Nokia, Seimens and Airtel (all of which built their African headquarters in Nairobi) have recognized that.”

He added, “Certain cities tend to be hubs, success breeds success, so when someone wins in a place like Nairobi, it quickly attracts more entrepreneurs and spinouts.”

A global stage

Success does indeed breed success, but the region also benefits from Hersman’s unique ability to attract capital for funding new projects. He’s not only a champion for Nairobi’s talent, he also creates workspaces for nurturing it.

In addition to his iHub initiative, described as “part open community workspace, part vector for investors and VCs, and part incubator,” Hersman is a driving force behind m:labs — Africa’s first mobile incubator launched on the heels of Pivot25 with support from the World Bank, Nokia and the Government of Finland.

Through his influential ‘White African’ blog and his roles as a TED Fellow and a PopTech Fellow, Hersman has a global stage on which to showcase his community’s engineers who bring, as he says, “ingenuity born of necessity”.

His latest contribution to building Nairobi’s image as an tech hub was his involvement in the Kenya Open Data Initiative (KODI), launched July 8, when Kenya became the first African country, and one of the first in the world, to make government data accessible to its citizens. (Here’s more on KODI.)

Hersman’s pitch to investors is compelling: Nairobi’s talented developers are creating the next wave of mobile software for the African market and beyond. Like their predecessors, the most promising new apps will affect a large number of people in a meaningful way.

This is an exciting space to watch. We’re witnessing history unfold now in Africa. As TIME Magazine’s Africa bureau chief put it: “…this is not a story merely of how technology is changing Africa. Africans are changing technology right back.”

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Image: ‘Nairobi from Uhuru Park’ Courtesy of Arthur Buliva

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Want more info on this subject?

• –Superb WIRED piece, Switching On: Africa’s Vast New Tech Opportunity (7/11).
• –Other champions of Kenya’s mobile tech community include Ory Okolloh of Google Africa and Juliana Rotich of Ushahidi
• –Hersman makes the case (2 clips): Africa in the 21st Century, and in his ‘09 TED Talk on launching Ushahidi
• –For context, Ken Banks, founder of kiwanja.net and FrontlineSMS, shares his views on mobile usage in developing markets
• –WIRED piece (July 12, 2011): Switching on: Africa’s new tech opportunity
• –TED Global – Africa (’07) series from Arusha, Tanzania — it’s amazing how far the African tech scene has evolved since then
• –A Touch Points post on Ushahidi’s role in the aftermath of the Haiti earthquake

• –Addendum: Hershman post (7/18), “What makes iHub work?”

As always, I’d appreciate your views…

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Turning the page…

Another interesting year is rapidly winding down. This year, I had the chance to work with many gifted business and tech leaders, but it was particularly satisfying collaborating with innovators in developing regions — the Sub-Sahara, the Middle East and South Asia.

It’s time for Western multinational companies — especially those in the customer-facing sectors — to enter developing markets where consumer-led growth is robust but capital and resources are in short supply.

Many Westerners have misconceptions about working in emerging markets. For example, they assume that the transfer of knowledge flows only in one direction — from us to them. But our clients in developing regions bring a keen understanding of their markets and what’s needed to elevate their businesses. We typically learn as much from them as they do from us.

Innovation Hothouses

Some of the most interesting business and technology breakthroughs are now coming from developing markets which have become hothouses of disruptive innovation. Behold the $2,500 car, the $25 business hotel room and the $25 mobile handset that provides service for just 2.5 cents a minute.

Developing innovators are finding novel ways for using mobile phones to perform vital functions like transferring money, paying bills, monitoring elections, diagnosing and treating illnesses, and buying and selling food. Each of these breakthroughs was created by inventive, driven entrepreneurs and engineers to improve the lives of consumers in their markets.

Those who aspire to work with innovators in developing regions must recognize the unique challenges that they face.  While conditions are generally improving, operators are often grappling with government red tape, dodgy distribution networks and difficulty securing credit. They demonstrate in quotidian ways how to overcome the kinds of constraints that would crush many Western enterprises.

Price of Admission

To contribute to and benefit from opportunities in emerging regions demands the wise use of capital, talent and resources. Understanding the market and culture are essential. Patience and perseverance are crucial.

Working in these markets also obliges us to give a portion of our time and resources to lend a helping hand where it’s needed the most. Whether that means donating digital equipment to bridge information gaps or mentoring a new generation of leaders, each of us can have a lasting impact.

Serving developing markets isn’t for everyone. For those who are fiercely determined to make a meaningful contribution on a global stage, the rewards outweigh the inconveniences.

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Want more?

I suggest a book, Winning in Emerging Markets, by two Harvard professors, Tarun Khanna and Krishna Palepu. They write, “Companies with ambitious emerging market growth strategies have no choice but to engage deeply with these economies – but the complex nature of these markets has made success elusive.”

Also have a look at McKinsey On Africa — a continent on the move, a “box-set” of essays and interviews about the opportunities and challenges in Africa.

In prior posts I’ve looked at how mobile phones are being used in emerging markets including in this tribute to Professor C. K. Prahalad who died earlier this year. His sage advice resonates. “Focus on becoming part of global citizenry. In exchange for the opportunity to participate everywhere/anywhere in the world you have the obligation to do something productive, which will improve the world.”

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Out of the East

Asia’s growing influence in Africa is receiving worldwide attention. China’s investment in Africa will top $100 billion dollars this year making it the continent’s biggest trading partner. There are 800 Chinese companies with over 4 million Chinese people living and working there. China’s impact on Africa, as author Richard Dowden observed, is the biggest economic shift of the twenty-first century.

Now, the story of Asia’s push into Africa is being revised to highlight players from India. In June, Bharti Airtel, India’s largest mobile carrier – the 5^th largest telecom in the world – bought Kuwait-based Zain’s operations in 16 African countries for $10.7 billion in cash.

Bharti has been eager to grab a piece of Africa’s growing mobile market for some time. In 2009, it tried to buy MTN, Africa’s largest carrier, but the deal failed due to regulatory roadblocks. Undeterred, Bharti pivoted quickly setting its sights on Zain.  By June, Bharti bagged its African trophy, though some analysts thought it paid too much for Zain’s assets.

The Bharti Recipe

Bharti didn’t waste any time plotting its next moves. By September, the carrier had chosen IBM, a partner since 2004, to run its network and IT for its 2G and 3G services in a 10-year deal worth over $1.7 billion.  IBM will manage the company’s data centers, servers and desktop operations.

This week, Bharti announced its selection of two Indian outsourcing specialists, Tech Mahindra and Spanco, to run its back office and customer care operations in Africa.

With its coalition of outsourcing partners in place, Bharti aims to streamline its sub-Saharan operation and cut costs to service Africa’s low-income markets. The carrier hopes to grow its 36 million subscriber base to over 100 million by 2012.

That’s an ambitious plan considering that Bharti will only control the product development, brand management and marketing portions of its business. Bharti thinks that these are the only functions essential to differentiating its offerings.

Multinational carriers have been relying on “managed services” companies that specialize in providing technology and customer care. Bharti pioneered and refined the managed services strategy in India for nearly a decade. Their model is considered an industry prototype.

The African Factor

Bharti’s gambit in Africa is unique in several critical ways: Africa is Bharti’s first market beyond the Indian sub-continent. The African market is both large and amazingly diverse. The sheer scale and complexity of their African foray is raising a critical question among industry analysts: Can a company, even one as disciplined as Bharti, get its arms around such a diverse amalgam of people, cultures and processes?

Jai Menon, group director of IT at Bharti thinks it can. He told the Economic Times of India: “The system was built in India and did operate in geographies where the diversity is huge — be it culture, language, devices and affordability. It will be the same across Africa. This system will address the entire pyramid, and not just the top or bottom of the pyramid.”

It will be interesting to watch Bharti choreograph its operations while launching its brand across Africa’s disparate social, economic and political cultures.They’ve begun by hiring African personnel from other carriers to assume key roles. Bharti will need to recruit more African talent to build a business culture that can realize the company’s aspirations.

Bharti brings to Africa an uncanny knack for squeezing out costs. India has been a hothouse for cultivating their scalable, ultra low-cost model.  If we’ve learned anything, it’s that Africa will likely present new and unexpected challenges.  In any case, Indian companies, led by Bharti Airtel, are emerging as major players in Africa.

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As always, I’d appreciate your perspective.

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Want more info?

The Economic Times of India’s (Oct 26)  piece : “Bharti splits $500 mn Africa deal among IBM, Tech Mahindra and Spanco”.

Bharti Airtel & IBM described their plan for Africa in joint video press release .

Want more context?

Richard Dowden’s quote in the post’s opening paragraph is from his ’08 book, Africa – Altered States, Ordinary Miracles.  His section (Ch 17) “Asia in Africa – new colonists or old friends?” sketches Asia’s  long  history in Africa. He writes, “India is following China’s path. Though its rise is less dramatic.  In a few years time maybe every reference to China in this chapter would be followed by ‘ and India’.”

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A recent Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation study revived the term “gazelle companies” to describe the young, rapidly-growing U.S.firms that are producing the majority of new jobs in the U.S.  The report recommends that policy-makers nurture Gazelles to stimulate job growth at a time when unemployment is high.

I’m interested in another class of companies—agile, well-run firms in emerging regions like the sub-Sahara. Like their Western counterparts, they’re creating a disproportionate number of jobs. But these young African companies are playing a more crucial role than gazelles do in driving market growth.

To belabor the metaphor, I call them Impalas, after the lean, swift gazelles indigenous to Africa. Impalas provide technology-enabled and outsourcing services to a growing number of multinational (MNC) service providers – mobiles, airlines and banks – in Johannesburg, Accra, and Nairobi, etc.  They share many of the characteristics of gazelles, but there are some notable differences.

Impalas make it possible for their MNC clients to devote more of their limited resources to building their core capabilities. For example, telecoms can concentrate on expanding their network infrastructures and building their brands while their resourceful Impala partners supply customer care and data services.

Business process outsourcers (BPOs) and large enterprises work together around the world—this practice is commonplace. Africa is different because it’s growing so rapidly. Only China’s consumer markets are growing more quickly.

Despite it’s rapid rise, the sub-Sahara’s growth trajectory is unsustainable because of  acute capability gaps in the region.  Companies are struggling to meet the needs of their customers. As African markets mature, Impalas are providing vital, high margin services like customer care, back-office support, and data analysis that require advanced technical and managerial talent.

Just as U.S. policymakers are advised to remove barriers to gazelles’ growth, African governments ought to lend a helping hand to Impalas which are creating jobs and raising standards of living for their citizens.

That’s been happening in economic hot spots like Botswana and Mauritius, but elsewhere on the continent, progressive economic policies are scarce.  Lack of access to capital and excessive regulatory burdens stifle young African companies.  Policymakers in Africa are missing a critical opportunity to move their economies forward at a time when the continent is poised for more growth.

There is an opportunity here for Western companies that can see and are willing to seize opportunities in Africa.  Partnering with Impalas on knowledge-exchange projects can be rewarding. Impalas benefit from acquiring tools and skills that Western companies have developed, and Western companies can become players in one of the most dynamic markets in the world.  Of course, it’s imperative to choose such opportunities wisely.

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As always, I’d love to find out what you think about this subject…

Image courtesy of Daryona

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The term ‘gazelle’  was coined by David Birch of Cognetics (c. 2001) to describe a class of companies that “run fast and jump high.”

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Downtown Cape Coast, Ghana

Pulsating business scene

I spent the last couple weeks on assignment in Accra, Ghana. On this trip, I’ve seen more growth than any time since my company started working there in ’07. This is a period of unprecedented business activity and promising new projects within and beyond the mobile sector.  Meanwhile, new competitors from around the world are streaming in. This corner of Africa’s business scene is pulsating.

Astute businesses here are taking steps to preserve their client base and deepen relationships with their customers. We’re privileged to work with a new generation of African business leaders with the courage and determination to transform their offerings to meet the needs of an emerging class of consumers.

These are exciting times to work with African business leaders who take seriously their mandate for investing in new technologies and business practices.  We’re helping them gain competitive advantages by improving the service systems that support touch points, by adding new service channels, and by harvesting business intelligence, among other initiatives.

Building competitiveness

The most effective strategy for businesses to gain a competitive edge here is to understand and meet the customer needs better than their rivals.  Forward-thinking leaders here know that competing on service will help preserve their customer base and attract new customers even as the marketplace grows more crowded with aggressive new entrants.

Developing insights about customers’ preferences and purchasing drivers helps companies here achieve competitiveness as well as profitability.

It also creates jobs. Thriving regional businesses are Africa’s greatest engine of job creation and economic growth.  That’s why we’re committed to collaborating with leading African businesses, knowing that their success means more jobs and higher living standards across the region.

What it takes to work here

This question comes up frequently in my circles. I think Western companies operating here require a distinctive set of leadership and communication skills. Traditional business skills are necessary but not sufficient to address the complexity and scale of challenges on this continent.

But what’s needed for Western companies to operate effectively in this environment? We’ve explored this question with business leaders in various sectors as well as academics, entrepreneurs, and technology innovators.

Our conclusion is that it’s not enough to bring an open mind. We must be skillful listeners. That means checking our assumptions at the door and listening with the intention of gaining deeper insights about the market and, most importantly, the customer.  Deep collaboration with partners and clients is key.

Africa’s dynamism and complexity require going beyond merely tolerating ambiguity. Ambiguity, a ubiquitous feature here, must be embraced.  “Leaning into” uncertainty is critical to problem-solving in this market.

It’s critical to drop the need for control, otherwise it’s tough to handle the inherent ‘push-pull’ of a region that’s steeped in tradition while it grows so rapidly.

The ability to consider competing, often “fuzzy” options helps us work with stakeholders here to produce the imaginative, yet practical solutions that the region demands.

Finally, operating in the region requires extraordinary levels of patience and perseverance.  Change rarely happens in sweeping strokes here. Instead change occurs through “successive approximations”.  One step forward, two back but always moving ahead.  Patience — never my strongest card — is essential.  (Note: I’m working on it.)

People, Process and Technology – Redux

Succeeding here requires mastery in choreographing people, process and technology, and we help clients focus on all three dimensions — what we refer to as “service systems”.  Of the three, ‘people’ is the most critical and challenging to optimize.

Africa’s leading companies are now investing heavily in their people because they know, in the end, that this the only sustainable ‘differentiator’.

On this trip, I observed how one company in particular, a leading business process outsourcer and partner, transformed its organization into a high performance business by nurturing its talent.  It accomplished this feat by fostering competition among its teams while encouraging buy-in and autonomy among team members.

Watching their evolution over time has been both heartening and instructive. Today, I’d stack them up against any competitor in the world. This kind of innovative, customer-focused organization is poised to meet the needs of customers in any market.

Lessons from Africa

Like all prior trips to Africa, this one was a valuable learning experience on several levels.  I encountered a new generation of leaders and was impressed by their willingness to invest in becoming more competitive. The vitality of the continent’s nascent mobile-web industry is breathtaking.  Keep an eye on this exciting space…

I also learned more about my company on this journey. I’m reminded that what separates us from our peers is our passion for and commitment to producing substantial results for our clients and their customers across the sub-Sahara.  It’s energizing to work on a continent of one billion people whose economic growth is only surpassed by China, and I never forget what a rare opportunity it is.

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What do you think?  I’d appreciate hearing your perspective.

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Want more info on this subject?  You’re not alone.  There’s a plethora of books about conflicts and coups in Africa, but there are fewer resources about doing business on the continent.  I’ve previously recommended Paul Collier’s ’07 book, The Bottom Billion, which remains relevant.

In ’07, TED organized Africa: The Next Chapter, a series of talks which included the first TED conference held on the continent.  The series featured a stellar lineup of speakers on a range of topics about Africa.  Since then, TED has added new presentations about business development in Africa to the series, and  I heartily recommend it.

Here are some of my prior posts about the sub-Sahara.

I’d appreciate hearing your recommendations about resources on this topic.

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Evening at Cape Point on the tip of South Africa

While the business world is preoccupied with the global economic recovery, a mobile revolution is quietly reshaping the marketplace in the developing world. In Africa, mobile phones are providing access to communications for millions of people who’ve never had fixed communications let alone cell phones. I’ve written before about the impact that such ‘leapfrogging’ is having on African business.  Now, we’re beginning to see exciting and substantial commercial projects taking shape, particularly in the service sector.

By the numbers

To call this a ‘revolution’ is hardly hyperbole. Consider the scale of mobile industry’s growth in Africa. According to a recent report by the International Telecommunications Union, the number of mobile subscribers skyrocketed from 5% of Africa’s population in 2003 to over 30% by the end of 2008.  Today, some 400 million Africans have mobile phones — that’s 100 million more than in North America.

Since only a third of Africa’s billion people have handsets, there’s plenty of room for more growth ahead. But, the interesting story, I think, is how the mobile phone is already remodeling African economies and creating promising, new opportunities for businesses and individuals in the region.

Mobile phones are enabling rural and low income people to join the economy while creating a stable infrastructure for businesses and emerging consumer markets.  Mobile communications are making it possible for new services to develop and thrive.

At the junction of mobile and web

Africa’s mobile subscribers are using handsets to access services that consumers in developed markets typically get from the fixed internet. The junction of mobile and web is a green field for inventive engineers and entrepreneurs.

New, innovative mobile applications are being developed in sectors ranging from banking, agriculture and fishing, medical, education, to government and non-profits.  It seems that every week, we read about a novel way that mobile technology is being used to meet the consumer needs.

M-banking, as mobile-banking is known, is arguably Africa’s most successful mobile-enabled service sector so far. Last year, m-banking initiatives were launched in almost every country across the continent. As banks and mobile operators join forces to deliver m-banking programs, Visa and MasterCard are watching the sector closely hoping to ‘leapfrog’ into markets where no viable payment infrastructure currently exists.

Kenya’s Safaricom was one of the first mobile operators anywhere to roll out an m-banking program, M-Pesa. Originally it was used solely for money transfer but Kenyans are increasingly using M-Pesa to pay their utility bills.

Taking this a step further, m-banking is enabling another layer of services — known as ‘m-commerce’ — where goods and services can be bought, sold or traded. In remote regions where the fixed-line communications are thin or non-existent, m-commerce can enable buyers and sellers of goods and services to find each other.

What’s next?

As new land-based and submarine cable deployments slated for later this year make 3G widely available in many parts of Africa, we’re likely to see m-commerce grow which should mean more investment by the business community and, ultimately, more jobs for Africans and improvements in their quality of life.

Africa’s mobile revolution is bringing as many challenges as opportunities. Governments on the continent must keep pace with dynamic mobile economy by taking courageous steps to encourage outside business investments.   African governments must develop templates for working collaboratively with businesses to enable their citizens to enjoy the benefits of the mobile revolution.

One thing is clear: there’s no stopping the growth of the mobile industry in developing markets, especially in Africa. The mobile phone is helping to put the continent on a path toward greater economic sustainability.  I find it utterly fascinating to see how innovative businesses and imaginative people are harnessing the power of connectivity in Africa.

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As always, I’d love to know your perspective.

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Want more info?  Here’s an October ’09 piece in the Guardian, “Africa Calling…” and a New York Times article from the same period.

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It’s been a week since the Port-au-Prince earthquake and images streaming in are helping us to grasp the region’s boundless misery and desperation. Hundreds of thousands have perished, and despite our best efforts, more will die and suffer for myriad reasons including the inability to deliver relief where it’s needed.

Despite the gut-wrenching news, it’s heartening to learn that determined, inventive people are finding ways to alleviate the suffering and, in some cases, save lives.

One of the more interesting stories is about an open-source project called Ushahidi which takes its name from the Swahili word for “testimony”.  The software, developed during the post-election violence in Kenya in 2008, enables text messages to be mapped by time and location.  Anyone with an internet connection, regardless of the device they use to access it, can send a text message, an image or an email. Ushahidi can also store data offline for later synchronization.

During its initial deployment in Kenya, Ushahidi was used to record hundreds of incidents of violence that might have otherwise gone undetected. It’s since been used to document incidents in the War in Gaza,the Vote Report India and Pak Voices (violence in Pakistan).  Ushahidi has also been used to track crime using its Atlanta Crime Maps.

But the application met its most demanding test after the earthquake in Haiti when the country’s mobile networks were down. Even after coverage was restored, the Ushahidi team realized that they needed a local SMS short code for the system to be widely accessible.

With a little help from our friends

Fortunately, Ushahidi has friends in high places. The team turned to Josh Nesbit, Co-Founder of FrontlineSMS:Medic, who used Twitter to reach a contact on the ground who was on his way to local mobile carrier DigiCel’s command center. With the help of the U.S. State Department, Ushahidi secured short code 4636 from DigiCel which is now being used to record the times, locations, and accounts of incidents.

Ushahidi updates its Haiti incident map with reports of medical emergencies, security threats, relief efforts and logistical bottlenecks.  It provides a filter for mapping earthquake survivors and deaths. Ushahidi also aggregates Tweets and streams from YouTube and Flickr, all of which can serve to orient first responders and relief workers while giving the rest of us a granular picture of what’s going on in the region.

Ushahidi teams in Kenya and Uganda are working around the clock to verify data from Haiti, and a university in Geneva, Switzerland is establishing a situation room there. Meanwhile, Ushahidi’s Boston team has approached Harvard, MIT and other institutions seeking volunteers to handle the massive volume of data pouring in.

As someone interested in how “home grown” technology is used in developing regions, this story is especially gratifying.  Ushahidi is about how inventive people in one developing country have created a simple but powerful “crowd-sourcing” tool to provide assistance in another hemisphere.

I’m concerned that “crisis fatigue” will set in, dampening world interest in supporting Haiti’s relief efforts.  By raising awareness about the on-going challenges in the region, we stand a chance of preventing the potential “disaster after the disaster”.

As this crisis evolves, new unforeseen challenges will arise. Let’s recognize that this is a long-haul operation. Perhaps stories like Ushahidi can serve to focus our attention on the enormous level of humanitarian assistance that’s needed in Haiti, and what we can do about it.

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Note: Ushahidi is currently seeking volunteers to process incoming SMS reports. Here are instructions to find out how you can help.

> Update (4/6/10):  Here’s an interview with Ushahidi’s Patrick Meier on a range of issues around crisis mapping and validation.

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Want more info about Ushahidi? Here is more on the 4636 SMS emergency code being used in Haiti.

And this is a Forbes piece (11-08), Citizen Voices:  “A Kenyan blogger found a way to get information from the crowd. Now she wants to take the idea to other parts of the world in trouble.”

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Today, there are more than 3.3 billion mobile-phone subscriptions worldwide, which means that there are at least three billion people who don’t own cell phones, the bulk… found in Africa and Asia.                                                                                                                                                                                                  --Sara Corbett, author “Can the Cell Phone Help End Global Poverty?” (NYT)

I’ve been optimistic about the continued growth of mobile services in emerging regions, even through this downturn. If that happens, it’s good news for those who appreciate what connectivity is doing for new subscribers in the developing world. The nascent mobile sector is an enabling engine for other industries in the developing world notably health care, agriculture, banking, and goverment services.

We see continued growth in emerging markets where there are few fixed line communications, low mobile penetration rates, and the arrival of new, highly motivated operators. Look for continued double digit growth (CAGR). Revenue growth (ARPU) will likely lag subscriber growth as companies add more lower-income users. Despite a crowding market, prospects for for growth by incumbent and new operators remains strong so long as they manage their growth with an eye to the future.

The next big thing on the horizon are cheaper handsets that enable service for very low income subscribers.  Handset makers like Nokia are working on it, but reaching a critical, ”ultra low” price point is just out of reach. But we’re moving in the right direction.  Meanwhile, as service is steadily rolling out to areas that had no prior coverage, we’re glimpsing the rapid evolution of the service economy in developing markets.

Our regional partners and we see more promising opportunities for helping emerging mobile companies and other service providers to leverage smart technology, astute  management practices, and business analytics to operate efficiently and profitably.  That works for commerce, and it works for emerging consumers who yearn for something better.

For more on this subject, I recommend: Nokia researcher and behavioral designer Jan Chipchase’s TED talk(2007). He discusses insights he’s discovered about how people in developing regions use mobile technology.  He reminds us, “People want to be part of the conversation.”

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Ex Africa semper aliquid novi — Out of Africa always something new. ~Pliny the Elder

This week marks my company’s 3rd anniversary of working in Africa within our emerging markets service practice. Helping companies in the region to understand and serve the needs of their customers has been enriching on a personal level.  I’ve had the privilege of witnessing the growth of the sub-Sahara’s nascent service industry and I marvel at its favorable impact on a growing number of people in the region.

The ascendant mobile industry illustrates the point.  On a continent where few people have landlines due to the high cost of installing cabling, cell phones are bridging the communications gap. In many sub-Saharan markets, like Ghana where we work, mobile growth rates have been approaching 50% annually. While less than 20% have mobile phones now, hundreds of millions of Africans are expected to get handsets in the next few years. Keep in mind that this is a continent of almost a billion people. That’s a lot of potential new subscribers.

I’ve written about how people in emerging markets are using their new cell phones to perform essential functions like transferring money (m-banking). But mobile technology is connecting people in wondrous, new ways every day.  Local entrepreneurs are devising inventive means of helping people meet their needs. TradeNet, a company in Ghana, has developed an eBay-like site enabling buyers and sellers of agricultural products to post their needs and offerings using text messaging.  MPedigree, another Ghanaian venture, lets consumers check the serial numbers of malaria or other drugs to determine if they are legitimate, a pressing regional concern.

Mobile technology is a “disruptive force” that is quietly but inexorably changing the lives of Africans across all socio-economic strata. The industry employs thousands of workers, improving living standards and slowing the region’s talent drain. A recent London Business School study found that a 10% increase in mobile-phone penetration adds 0.6 percentage points to the economic growth rate.  According to Columbia University’s Jeffrey Sachs, “The cell phone is the single most transformative technology for development”.  It’s the region’s best hope for bridging the growing digital divide.

Make no mistake: the challenges of building on the early successes are steep. Despite inroads by equipment makers, handsets are still too pricey for people at the bottom of the pyramid who live on less than a couple dollars a day. Governments and companies must work more closely to make low cost handsets available to more people.  Telecom firms must invest in tools and practices to meet the growing needs of customers as their markets grow crowded with new competitors.   The mobile business is pushing Africa’s service industry forward rapidly.

There is growing uncertainty about how the global economic crisis will affect the region. While developing economies are tanking, analysts believe that regional GDP growth will slow but not recede. And, the region is expected  to bounce back sooner than developed nations.  While I’m not confident in analysts’ rosy predictions these days, I’d wager that we’ll see growth, albeit below the robust 5% rate the region has enjoyed in recent years.

When it comes to Africa, my rule is to always expect the unexpected.  Stability is something that people in the region don’t take for granted. In January, Ghana witnessed a peaceful transfer of power from one political party to another.  But memories of coups and tyranny are too recent and too close at hand to take stability for granted.

I genuinely enjoy working and spending time in the West Africa. It stimulates my mind, quells my restlessness and, at times, tries my patience. Often projects take longer to develop  than seems reasonable to a Westerner, and it’s imperative to figure that into any timetable.  But if you’re wired for adventure, it’s one of the most compelling business destinations on the globe.  I’ve had the pleasure of collaborating with some of the sharpest, most resourceful entrepreneurial minds I’ve ever encountered.  And, there’s nothing like the thrill of making things happen in a region where doing so has such a profound impact on people’s daily lives.  There’s nothing like that.

More on the impact of the mobile industry in Africa from BusinessWeek.

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03b, a Jersey Island (UK)-based company, announced that it is building 16 satellites that will enable lower-cost Internet accessibility over 3G and WiMax networks. These satellites will provide “trunking” or backhaul  coverage zone between +/- 40 degrees of latitude which blankets much of the world’s underserved regions including Latin America, the Middle East, Africa and South Asia.

Fiber cable and the labor for digging fiber trenches in underdeveloped countries is costly by any measure. Mobile operators face prohibitive costs in building transmission capacity between their networks and towers. Using satellites had been long been considered problematic due to their latency or the time it takes for a signal to travel between earth and satellites.

Today’s geosatellites orbit the earth at an altitude of 22,500 and their latency can exceed 600 milliseconds. By contrast, O3b plans to use MEO satellites which orbit the earth at 5,000 miles and can reduce latency to only 120 milliseconds—not that much more than a fiber network. 

O3b which expects to activate service by late 2010 intends to provide speeds of up to 10G bps (bits per second) to regions. The companies collectively invested about $65 million with the total cost estimated at $650 million.

This is good news for “3b” consumers, and probably a smart investment for Google which recognizes that the majority of the world isn’t currently using its services do to lack of access.  With their $10M investment, Google is getting in on the ground floor, so to speak.  Consider this another milestone in moving forward their Android initiative. 

Want more info?  Download this PRI (Public Radio) Podcast, Google to invest in internet start-up (4:30). 

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In my lifetime, conditions have grown immeasurably better, freer and more prosperous for a majority of humanity, yet hand-wringing about the miserable remains the reflex mode for most coverage of planet earth.

Nowhere more so than in Africa, from which I’d just returned when the e-mail landed. During a short stay in Ghana, which will hold free elections in December, Vodafone had bought a majority stake in Ghana Telecom for $900 million (entering a fiercely competitive mobile-phone market) and I’d heard much about 6 percent annual growth, spreading broadband and new high-end cacao ventures.

Accra, the capital, is buzzing. Russian hedge funds are investing. New construction abounds. Technology enables people in the capital to text money transfers via mobile phone to poor relatives in the bush.

I think most of Cohen’s points are well taken. He doesn’t mention the discovery of oil off Ghana’s coast and the country’s fiber projects or the investments being made by multinationals in the country’s business infrastructure.  The business climate in the region is improving, albeit in successive approximations.  The country’s services sector — chiefly teleco and financial services — are contributing to Ghana’s high annual growth rate.  Inflation is a growing concern, but so far it’s been manageable.  The process leading up to this December’s election should be interesting.  So far so good.

It’s also true that Africa’s success stories aren’t newsworthy to many news consumers.  We mostly hear about war, corruption, disease and rampant poverty.  On this point, I recommend Charlayne Hunter Gault’s “New News Out of Africa: Uncovering Africa’s Renaissance,” — it’s  chiefly about South Africa, but pertinent to the problem of media coverage across the continent.

If Ghana’s political environment remains stable and forward-looking, the country will be in a position to contribute even more of its stalwart intellectual capital to a “globalized” resource (R=G) community in the coming years.  So, even if the global media is fixated on the region’s challenges, the numbers will support a different story.  So look for Ghana and other gazelle nations of the sub-Sahara to lead the way.

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Here’s an interesting piece in Time (July 31, 2008), The Creative Capitalism Roundtable, featuring a conversation with Bill Gates, CK Prahalad and others sharing their views on creative capitalism and the Bottom of the Pyramid.  Their conversation led to a discussion of the telecom industry at the BoP:

 Stengel [Managing Editor - Time]: C.K., I know that Bill was influenced by, by your work, and one of the questions I have, and I guess it’s a question both about creative capitalism and how you see it, is that, when it comes to cell phones for Kenyan farmers for example, isn’t this just good old fashion capitalism in the sense that it’s a recognition of a market that people hadn’t figured out how to profit from, and now, and now they are.

Prahalad: I think it is, but there’s a twist to it, and I think it’s an important twist. If you look at traditionally how we have looked at all this product and services especially high-tech products like cell phones, we would never have gone to the poor. But, I think that growth opportunity is there, as the cell phones have demonstrated. Also, it is changing the asymmetry of information, be it the farmer, who can now get prices, weather conditions, or someone who can make small transactions with SMS messaging, suddenly the asymmetry of information which is the essence of poverty — that is why people are poor, they don’t have access to information — that is changing very, very dramatically. What is happening in the cell phone industry, three billion people are connected for the first time in human history, I think it will be four billion soon. That I think gives me tremendous confidence that we can really take Bill’s idea and see it through to its logical conclusion, which, for me, is how to democratize commerce.

Food for thought…

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How should businesses respond? We see exciting opportunities for companies to leapfrog the traditional approaches that firms in developed markets have struggled with in the past.  Firms that make the most of their business intelligence and continually seek out new ways to gain new insights about their performance and their customers should have the upper hand.

There’s no magic bullet. Ultimately, it boils down to getting the fundamentals right. Simplicity and agility are critical.  But companies that tighten up their business processes and align their people around a clear, customer-focused strategy can gain a serious competitive advantage.

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Imagine some of the most inspired and provocative writers, artists, scientists, business people, teachers and leaders – drawn from myriad fields, from across the country and from around the world – all gathered in a single place, ready to teach, speak, lead, question and answer – all interacting with an audience of thoughtful people, who have stepped back from their day-to-day routines to delve deeply into a world of ideas, thought and discussion.

I haven’t had a chance to sample many of the video clips yet. But one of the more enjoyable so far has been Walt Mossberg’s entertaining talk on The Future of the Internet and the Rise of the Cell Phone.  Among other things, he suggests the interesting, broader implications of the device “formerly known as the cell phone,” (aka smart phone).

Want more?  Visit Mossberg’s and partner, Kara Swisher’s informative site, AllThingsD. 

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To add some perspective, there is only about one landline per 33 people in Africa and that’s unlikely to change much given the high cost of installing fixed lines in the continent’s vast, remote regions. However, mobile networks are relatively easy to install and maintain.  Thus, mobile phones have become the primary communication channel throughout the sub-Sahara.

The large transnational telecoms, hungry for growth and finding saturation elsewhere, are quickly swooping in to the region hoping to grow their user bases.  Mobile operators are investing millions of dollars in  extending their coverage across the continent.  And as competition grows, they’re pouring millions more in to expand and fortify their networks.

This injection of capital is creating jobs and raising living standards in the region, and this is only the beginning.  It certainly feels like we’re at an inflection point and the socio-economic impact will be enormous.

But the African market poses some vexing challenges to operators. First, they’ll need to help the continent’s large base of very low income consumers to overcome the cost barrier of using mobile services.  Bottom line: these consumers who make under $2 a day need lower cost handsets.

Operators have been working with handset makers to produce units for as little as $15 USD. Refurbished handsets, recycled from other markets, are bringing prices down further.

Low income users are mainly interested in a phone’s basic functions—voice calls and SMS text messages—and little else. For them, battery life – especially in regions with unreliable electricity – is more important than ring tone options.

But, low income users are “leapfrogging” to mobile banking which I’ve mentioned previously.  Mobile phones are now being used in developing cash economies to pay for things or transfer money across distances. The implications of the rise of m-banking and other mobile-based services among low income users is enormous.

Meanwhile, mobile operators must also compete for higher income users. They’re rolling out and bundling higher end products like managed data services, Blackberry, WiMax, 3G and more – all of this while reinforcing their infrastructures and business processes to deliver higher service quality and reliability.

It gets even more interesting.  Most of the people who are gaining access to communications and the Internet via cell phones have no other way to access the web, unlike developed country where cell phones are used mainky for voice with Internet access being an occasional activity.

Reliance on mobile devices for Internet access means that content developers in Africa, like other emerging regions, see mobile devices not as a substitute for their desktop, but as a primary data platform.   We’re already seeing some promising examples of voice-data convergence aimed at this growing market. We may witness the first wide-scale convergence applications coming from Africa and other developing markets.

I’ve worked with some talented, dedicated people in the region’s telecom sector.  The speed with which they’re adaptaing to the market’s growth has been impressive.  They’re making strides in building their management capabilities and business processes to meet rising consumer demands.

It’s an exciting time to be working in this market. I can’t think of a more interesting, fertile business environment today than Africa’s nascent telecom sector.  It’s a veritable hothouse for business innovation on so many levels.

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Branson said, “I am delighted to announce Virgin’s first business in Russia – Virgin Connect. We have entered Russia with Virgin Connect because we believe the potential for growth in the Russian broadband market is extremely exciting. Virgin‘s fundamental business principle is: ‘Delivering an outstanding customer experience’.”  He added, “We will provide a fresh and human customer experience to Russians and believe that Trivon is the ideal partner to deliver this. Virgin Connect plans to gain a market share of 10% within 5 years in this promising market”.

Trivon, founded in ’04, has bought up several Russian communications operators. They grabbed up the 5.7-5.9GHz spectrum licence across Russia and also acquired a 5.9-6.4GHz spectrum in some regions to set the stage.

It’s a shrewd move. The venture wants to exploit a fragmented, underserved market which only has a 5% broadband penetration rate.  The Russian market still suffers from the legacy practices of their monopolistic, post-Soviet era culture.

The company didn’t provide details about its service model yet but judging by the Virgin Group’s progressive approach to consumer services in other verticals, they could reshape the services industry in a region that lags far behind the rest of the developing world.  I’m betting on Virgin’s succeeding and, in any case, this should be interesting.  Stay tuned…

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