Archive for the ‘Sub-Sahara Region’ Category

Alchemy & Emerging Markets

Saturday, January 19th, 2008

Many of the leaders of global business convened at Davos this week in their annual summit to discuss the state of the world economy.  Like last year, the ’08 conference paid lots of attention to ventures that are reducing the misery in the poorest parts of the developing world.

Bill Gates advocated, as he has in the past, for a market-based (“creative capitalism”) model in which enterprises in the developed world contribute to fighting poverty.

Creative capitalism harnesses the profit motive among companies in developed markets to meet the business needs of a largely neglected market that’s growing at a faster rate than the developed world.  This model has been frequently stressed among world leaders, particularly since C.K. Prahalad’s seminal book (’04) The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid.  The U. of Michigan scholar makes a convincing case for focusing on emerging markets that, in the aggregate, will rival the size of the developed world.

A self-described “impatient optimist,” Gates is keen on these markets, citing successful projects in several industries—in food, technology, cell phones—that are opening the door for other ventures. And he argues that self-interest among companies meeting needs will drive new forms of innovation.  And, he credits Microsoft’s billions in contributions over the years for successfully bridging the digital divide.

This story has gone unheralded because results have come in slowly.  But the success stories are mounting. In a few months China will surpass the U.S. as the country with the largest number of internet users. It already has the same number of mobile-phone users (500m) as all of Europe.

In Mumbai half the residents now have mobile- or fixed-telephone subscriptions and the number is growing by 8 million monthly.  The growth potential for the telecommunications market throughout the developing world is enormous.

Gains aren’t only evident in the CTI services sector. India’s Tata Motors recently unveiled the world’s cheapest car equivalent of $2,500 aimed at low income consumers currently using motorbikes. Meanwhile, in Africa, people who live in rural villages are using mobile phones to pay bills or to check food prices and find the best market for their wares.

Despite the high-profile successes and the long tem market promise , Western companies don’t often make their margins offering services to developing economies.  Profits are too meager to entice most companies to invest in this space.  Barriers – political, cultural and beaurocratic - are high.

To succeed in this kind of environment, businesses will need a new organizational model enabling distributed collaboration to be far more efficient and effective. Such a model, will rely on peer-based, bottom-up decision making.  The new model will be enabled if not sparked by technology that enables collaborative efforts over vast distances.

This could result in a kind of business alchemy.  The new business model will probably emerge in successive approximations —through trial and error.  Two steps forward, and one step back.

Techno trend roundup…

Sunday, December 23rd, 2007

Google released its annual year-end list of its most popular queries, suggesting the latest trends. No surprises this year. The fastest rising query in ‘07 was ‘iPhone,’ an impressive techno-business phenomenon. Its meteoric sales in Europe this past week prove that the iPhone is a truly global phenomenon.

But, with all the hoopla about how the iPhone is revolutionizing the marketplace, we’re missing another interesting – if less sexy – mobile trend: the rapid acceleration of cell phone penetration in emerging markets and its impact on the global marketplace.

Mobile phone penetration in developing regions is staggering. And, it’s a key contributor to economic growth. Studies show that every 10 percent increase in mobile penetration results in a country’s GDP growth of 0.6 percent.

The growth of mobile teleco penetration affects global poverty, and the way people in emerging regions consume a growing range of services from prepaid phone cards to banking services.  Micro economies in rural villages are developing around those who buy and sell prepaid vouchers. People are using cell phones to enable their nascent businesses to flourish. Some of these micro-enterprises are growing – rapidly.

Until recently, network coverage in emerging regions focused on large cities as well as in major tourist areas. But operators are realizing the sheer economics of extending their networks to rural areas, particularly in regions without fixed line infrastructures. In order to do this, base stations are being built at a record pace. It’s a major undertaking, with financial costs to match.  But the ROI is massive.

Looking back at the past year and looking ahead, here are the hot, new trends facing teleco operators in emerging markets:

1. Infrastructure sharing: operators using the same base station sites and transmission equipment reducing network infrastructure costs.
2. Consolidation of carriers.
3. Investment is coming from unlikely sources such as private equity firms.
4. 3G leapfrogging in emerging markets. (Operators in Qatar and Saudi Arabia have begun to offer 3G services, as did South Africa.)
5. WiMAX is emerging as a platform alternative for introducing new mobile services over vast expanses.
6. Deregulation in Middle East markets is enabling greater competition and better service/pricing. GCC nations, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, as well as Lebanon are awarding new licenses for carriers.  Consumers are benefiting from better service.
7. Regional call-centers will be used to help convert prepaid customers to higher-revenue, lower-churn post-paid accounts.
8. Celtel’s Pan-African roaming network will enable people across geographic borders to connect without having to pay for incoming calls.

I’m not knocking the iPhone as the tech-business story of the year. Apple’s success will change the shape of things to come in the coming year and beyond. The iPhone has earned a special place in the zeitgeist of commerce.  But, consider the under-reported story of mobile penetration in emerging regions, and fathom the scope and scale of what’s on the horizon.

Double leapfrogging

Saturday, December 15th, 2007

Last week, Nokia announced a dramatic 85 percent rise in 3rd quarter (’07) profits due to robust demand for low cost phones in emerging markets. This boosts its share of the global pie to about 40 percent.  The biggest surge came in Africa and the Middle East where unit sales topped 45 percent.

It’s easier to install in cellular towers in remote developing areas than to put in land lines, the use of cell phones has been exploding. The stunning growth of mobile services in emerging markets is creating new socio-economic realities for legions of new consumers who are using mobile networks for more than just calling their friends.

We’re talking “cash economies” with little Internet penetration. In remote regions, mobile phones enable the “leapfrogging” of earlier technology by facilitating a growing mobile-banking (m-banking) market. M-banking is actually a case of “double leapfrogging,” – jumping over both landlines and traditional banking. And, it appears to be another example of emerging markets driving global innovation.

It’s not unlike SMS money transferring which was originally developed for emerging markets but is now being adopted globally by telecos and banks to address worldwide gaps in trasmitting funds.

There’s lots of interest these days about m-banking because there are many more people around the world with mobile phones than with bank accounts. Most notably, companies in South Africa, Kenya and the Philippines are extending banking services through the mobile channel to people who previously didn’t have banking access at all.

M-banking enables ”un-banked” populations to conduct financial transactions, providing access to customized information to enable remittances and “micro-payments”. Using mobile channels banks can reduce disbursement and loan collection costs and streamline their operations while enabling customers access to loans and lower borrowing costs.

The fusing of mobile technology with new business practices raises interesting socio-economic as well as business questions. Who is using m-banking and how it changing their lives? How are tech and service providers linking up to deliver solutions to underserved markets?  What other services will be consumed through mobile channels in these markets.

We’re witnessing how the personalization, processing power, and flexibility of mobile technology are opening a potentially vast market of new users, many of whom are gaining access to new services at the same time they are getting their first telephones.

There is a broader question here. How can technology and business practices come together to foster economic development in emerging markets? Ultimately, it’s the new consumers who will decide how to take advantage of mobile-enabled services.

And, it’s more proof that we don’t need a 20th century industrial base to build a 21st century information economy at the “bottom of the pyramid.” As C.K. Prahalad and Stuart Hall famously noted: “The real source of market promise is not the wealthy few in the developing world, or even the emerging middle-income consumers; it is the billions of aspiring poor who are joining the market economy for the first time.”

Here’s the thing. About 85 percent of the world’s population resides in emerging markets. While individuals in these markets have lower purchasing power, their aggregate purchasing power could soon exceed that of developed markets.  This is a fact that hasn’t escaped Nokia or Google, judging by its Android project.

How will this economic reality push global innovation? How will CTI-enabled services affect the economic growth in the developing world?  And, more broadly, what comes next? These are exciting, complicated questions to ponder as we look ahead to the New Year.

Ghana – Open for business

Wednesday, September 19th, 2007

During a trip to Accra, Ghana last week to work with a Ghanaian alliance partner, I was struck by the positive attitude of the people. I’d been told that Ghanaians are generally warm and welcoming, but nothing prepared me for the esprit de corps and resourcefulness of the people whom I encountered. In fact, I’m betting that Ghana’s robust human resources will enable the country of 22 million to become a regional or maybe even a global hub in the Information Age.

A confluence of forces may be working in the country’s favor. The vitality of its government institutions, its deep appreciation of civil liberties, and its fiercely independent media have all made Ghana a beacon of stability in contrast to many of its neighbors. In addition, legions of tech-savvy Ghanaians, many educated abroad, are accelerating the country’s technology boom. These factors, coupled with the nation’s intense entrepreneurial drive, are helping Ghana build its service sector from the ground up.

As an English-speaking country, Ghana is poised to deliver a range of BPO services to other Anglophone nations in the West African sub-region and beyond. This particularly applies to its oil-rich neighbor, Nigeria with a population exceeding 140 million, the largest country in Africa. While Nigeria has made great strides in reforming its institutions recently, the country has long battled institutional corruption. Nigeria’s growing financial services sector is already looking to Ghana as a safe harbor for delivering its customer-facing and back-office services. And its telecom sector is the world’s fastest growing after that of China.

There’s been a lot of buzz about partnering with African companies lately, starting with the World Economic Forum in Davos (“Promise of Africa”), followed by this year’s TED (Technology, Entertainment and Design) conference held in Monterey, California, last March. TED featured a particularly inspiring talk about doing business in Africa by Ngozi Okojo-Iweala, Nigeria’s former Finance Minister, who served briefly as Foreign Affairs Minister – the first woman to hold either post. She warns business people and investors not to miss the Africa boat. Africa, she tells us, is open for business.

Okojo-Iweala later wrapped up a special 4-day session held in Aruysha, Tanzania, last June, called Africa – the Next Chapter, by discussing the flow of private investment in Africa. She pointed out that emerging confidence in Africa is creating exciting opportunities for collaborating with smart African entrepreneurs. The take away is that this is only the beginning.  One thing for sure – it’s energizing doing business in Ghana.