April 13th, 2012
A gentleman’s agreement
Since its inception in 1946, the World Bank has had 12 presidents, each of them an American. The practice of choosing an American for the job has gone unopposed given that the U.S. has been the world’s biggest donor nation. Similarly, the Europeans traditionally pick one of their own to run the IMF. This arrangement is known as a “gentleman’s agreement”.
But this year there’s a wrinkle in the World Bank process. A battle is underway among three candidates vying to succeed the incumbent president, Robert Zoellick, whose term ends in June.
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Tags: africa, Economics, emerging high growth, Kim, macroeconomics, Ocampo, Okojo-Iweala, president world bank, Sub-Sahara, World Bank, Zoellick
Posted in africa, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Business, Sub-Sahara Region, What's Next? (WILD CARD) | 1 Comment »
April 4th, 2012
While economists are preoccupied with China and India, a new engine of growth is quietly emerging in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Demographics, rising purchasing power and a burgeoning private sector are fueling economic development in a region where markets have been fragmented for too long.
Stretching from Morocco to Oman, MENA’s population tops 350 million, making it the world’s ninth largest market. But trade barriers among countries in the region have constrained market growth.
Now, an emerging trend is disrupting MENA’s traditional market patterns: a growing segment of urbanized, tech-savvy Arab youths is devouring on-line entertainment, gaming and social media, creating demand for digital services that are delivered across borders.
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Tags: "emerging", al arabiya, al jazeera, Arab, Arab digital, arab world, developing, disrupt, Doha, Dubai, Egypt, high-growth, mena, MENA 2.0, middle east, Middle East North Africa, Muslim, pan-arab, qatar, UAW
Posted in africa, Arab Business, Gulf (GCC) Region, How Cool?, Middle East, Technology from Developing Regions | No Comments »
March 3rd, 2012
City Bowl – Cape Town, South Africa
Cause for Hope
Good news continues to stream in about the unprecedented growth and stability of Africa’s frontier economies. The Economist, which ran a cover story in 2000 headlined, “The Hopeless Continent”, reversed course in December 2011, dubbing Africa, “The Hopeful Continent”.
Africa’s newer narrative is grounded in economics. In the last decade, six of the world’s 10 fastest growing nations have been in the Sub-Sahara, and that trend is expected to continue into the foreseeable future. The continent rebounded quickly from the global recession reaching 6% growth last year, surpassing East Asia.
Africa is too vast and diverse to be handled in a broad brush treatment. Each of its economies is affected by a unique and dynamic set of drivers.
However, on the whole, the Sub-Sahara is being shaped by converging forces: global demand for resources, burgeoning consumer markets and government reforms are placing the continent on a path toward sustainable growth. Regional trade and foreign investment are increasingly important. There’s cause for optimism and for a closer look at Africa’s Great Boom.
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Tags: africa, boom, consumer sector, consumer-led, great boom, growth, Sub-Sahara, trade block
Posted in africa, Emerging Markets, International Business, Sub-Sahara Region, West Africa | No Comments »
February 2nd, 2012
Leader of the pack
Last July, Kenya became the first sub-Saharan country to launch an open data government site, enabling its citizens to gain access to vital information. After only six months, the Kenya Open Data Initiative (KODI) is still a work in progress, but it’s already reshaped Kenya’s culture of government.
When KODI was launched, Kenya was only the 22nd country with an open government portal. Today, 30 countries have live, open government sites, though dozens of other countries are in some stage of developing their own. Kenya’s early adoption is due in large part to the efforts of open data advocates both within Kenya’s government and among its influential technology community.
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Tags: gov2.0, government 2.0, iHub, Kenya, Kenya Open Data Initiative, KODI, Ndemo, open data, open government, open source, opengov, Ushahidi
Posted in Emerging Markets, Innovation, Sub-Sahara Region, Uncategorized, What's Next? (WILD CARD) | 3 Comments »
January 4th, 2012
Accra, Ghana
In reflecting on the year ending, my thoughts turn again to Africa, home of six of the world’s top 10 fastest growing economies. Africa’s mobile revolution is spawning exciting, new opportunities for entrepreneurs and engineers. For practitioners eager to experience the impact of their work, there’s no more dynamic and interesting place to be than Africa today.
With that in mind, I’d like to share three short but inspiring talks given in 2011 by three of Africa’s best and brightest pioneers. These trailblazers all began their careers in technology, but now they’re developing “platforms” in the broader sense, enabling a new generation of Africans to reshape their future.
Each speaker offers their unique perspective, but a common theme from all of the talks is that Africa is rising rapidly. Through their courage and determination, Africa’s trailblazers can inspire us all to persevere, whether we work on the continent or not.
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Tags: #ict4d, africa, Africa 2012, Afrigadget, Afromusing, Ashesi, Awuah, Berekuso, Global Voices, Hersman, Huduma, iHub, m:lab, Rotich, Tech4d, TED, TED Fellow, Ushahidi, White African
Posted in africa, Sub-Sahara Region, Tech4dev, Technology from Developing Regions, West Africa, What's Next? (WILD CARD) | No Comments »
December 12th, 2011
Global businesses faced unprecedented opportunities and challenges in 2011. In a year that ushered in the Arab uprisings and a fracturing of the Eurozone, the world grew more interdependent and fragile.
Yet markets are demonstrating surprising capacities for resilience. Engineers and entrepreneurs in places like Nairobi, São Paulo and Doha are beginning to build export-worthy technologies.
This is a momentous time for anyone engaged in cross-market projects. It’s only fitting that the year’s top books match the scale of the changes we’re witnessing.
Here’s a year-end roundup of books that define our times and guide practitioners with a global perspective:
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Tags: 2011 books, Bruce Rutherford, Daniel Yergin, David Brooks, Deborah Brautigam, Francis Fukuyama, Ivor W. Hartman, Jeffrey Sachs, John R. Bradley, Joseph S. Nye, Michael Lewis, Michael Spence, Niall Ferguson, Richard McGregor, Robert Kaplan, Tim Harford, touch points
Posted in Books, Economics, International Business, What's Next? (WILD CARD) | No Comments »
November 15th, 2011
Booming São Paulo
The West and the Rest
This is a tale of two economies with interlocking features. One has excess supply; the other has gnawing demand. In the West, economic growth is slowed while emerging markets are busting at the seams. An explosion in the number of urban, middle class consumers and related factors is powering growth in emerging markets.
The World Bank estimates that, on average, emerging nations will grow by 4.7 percent – double that of developed countries — through 2025. That growth isn’t only evident in the so-called BRIC nations, but in Turkey, Indonesia, South Korea, and across the developing world. Some of the fast growing regions are in Sub-Saharan Africa.
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Tags: "emerging", BRIC, developed marker, developing market, emerging economies, Emerging Markets, Indonesia, macroeconomics, market entry, market entry strategy, multipolar, Sao Paulo, South Korea, Turkey
Posted in Business Model, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Business, Market Entry, MetaPlanning, Service design | 6 Comments »
October 6th, 2011
His true legacy is that he made the digital analogue. He turned ‘stuff’ into enduring delight. And what one business would have seen as irrelevant, expensive design detail, he made glorious, emotional connectivity. ~Richard Seymour, designer
His Legacy
In countless tributes to Steve Jobs, Apple devotees are understandably praising him for redefining several consumer electronics categories — the computer, the mouse, the MP3 player, the smartphone and the tablet.
Apple’s sleek devices resonate with users through all the noise and clutter of their lives, whether they’re in Johannesburg, Shanghai or São Paulo.
But Jobs’ impact extends beyond Apple’s wildly successful product line. Jobs not only raised the bar on consumer electronics, he transformed the discipline of design. Due to the universal appeal of his work, he revolutionized the way designers everywhere approach their work.
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Tags: #design, apple, Cziskenmihali, design paradigm, design strategy, experience design, iPad, iPod, iTunes, Jobs' legacy, MP3, post-modernist design, Richard Seymour, seymourpowell, smartphone, Steve Jobs, sui generis
Posted in customer experience management, Design, design thinking, Innovation, leadership | No Comments »
September 13th, 2011
An African Narrative
The misdeeds of Africa’s despots get plenty of media attention because they fit a Western “plug-n-play” narrative about the region. Conversely, the work of Africa’s exemplary leaders is often overlooked.
I’d offer the story of an extraordinary African leader determined to improve the quality of life in her nation. She’s Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, who was recently appointed Nigeria’s Finance Minister.
In her previous stint in that role, she compiled a stunning record of economic reform. She was the first woman to serve as her country’s Finance Minister and as its Foreign Minister.
Okonjo-Iweala is an inveterate disruptor of the status quo who is guided by her vision for what’s possible and a zeal for instigating change.
Stories like hers give rise to an emergent narrative that’s being written by Africans. As she puts it, “This is the Africa of opportunity. This is the Africa where people want to take charge of their own futures and their own destinies.”
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Tags: africa, Biafra, Delta State, Goodluck Jonathan, Iweala, Minister of Finance, Nigeria, Okonjo-Iweala, West Africa, World Bank
Posted in africa, Emerging Markets, leadership, Sub-Sahara Region, West Africa, What's Next? (WILD CARD) | 4 Comments »
August 17th, 2011
Mapping the Fiber Revolution
Most everyone interested in Africa’s connectivity revolution has seen the handiwork of Steve Song, a South African social entrepreneur who wants to make telecommunications accessible to more Africans. His iconic map of Africa’s undersea fiber optic cables is a visual narrative of the continent coming “on-line”.
When Song began the mapping exercise three years ago, his intent was to document the continent’s two or three existing cables in order to aid his work. Since then, the number of new undersea cables encircling Africa has burgeoned, and Song has faithfully revised his map.
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Tags: #ict4d, africa, Afrinnovator, AFTerFibre, fiber optics, fibre optics, Google Africa, Matt Berg, Steve Song, Tech4d, Terrestrial Fibers, Terrestrial Fibres
Posted in africa, ICT, Sub-Sahara Region, Tech4dev, West Africa, What's Next? (WILD CARD) | 5 Comments »
July 17th, 2011
Nairobi Skyline
“This is the future of African technology, and if you blink, you’ll miss it.” ~Erik Hersman
On the ‘Silicon Savanna’
Last month in Nairobi, Kenya, a conference called Pivot25 connected 25 promising mobile app developers from East Africa with investors and venture capitalists. Events like this one, based on the Y Combinator model, give aspiring developers a rare chance to pitch their ideas for possible seed capital.
What’s intriguing about Pivot25 is the attention that it drew from outside the region. TIME Magazine ran a piece about the conference from the standpoint of Nairobi’s contribution to global technology. CNN’s Global Public Square covered the event, too. Why so much attention?
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Tags: #ict4d, @whiteafrican, africa, East Africa, Hersman, ICT, Kenya, m:labs, mobile, mobile app, mobile services, mobile technology, Nairobi, open data, Pivot 25, pivot25, Silicon Savanna, TED_fellow, Y Combinator
Posted in africa, Emerging Markets, ICT, Sub-Sahara Region, Tech4dev, Technology from Developing Regions, Telecommunications | 4 Comments »
June 1st, 2011
Two conversation-shaping books
Here are my Summer Reading picks for those who go for both engaging narrative and penetrating insight. I’m recommending two distinctly different books by writers who don’t want to merely inform their readers; they want to shape the conversation. Both authors accomplished what they set out to do.
Tim Harford | Adapt – Why Success Always Starts with Failure
“Today’s challenges simply cannot be tackled with ready-made solutions and expert opinions; the world has become far too unpredictable and profoundly complex. Instead, we must adapt—improvise rather than plan, work from the bottom up rather than the top down, and take baby steps rather than great leaps forward.” ~Tim Harford
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Tags: Adapt, Alone, Carr, Finikiotis, Harford, Harford quote, steven johnson, summer picks, summer read, summer reading, Turkle, Turkle quote
Posted in Books, Learning, Problem solving, Relational competency, What's Next? (WILD CARD) | 6 Comments »
May 4th, 2011
“In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.” ~Dwight Eisenhower
Meta-planning
As information comes to light about the Special Ops mission in Abbottabad, Pakistan, we’re reminded of the value of effective contingency planning. Military analysts will one day reconstruct the planning measures taken by the JSOC team, and we’ll learn how the project specialists succeeded despite the challenges.
For now we can only speculate about the risks and uncertainties facing the planners at key decision points. But we do know that the mission’s tactical planners had to consider two big questions at every juncture: What can go wrong here, and what do we do about it?
These aren’t the only questions the planners had to pursue. They have to question the intelligence they’re using and they have to examine their own assumptions. Guarding against groupthink is a first order consideration. These “meta-planning” aspects of the exercise are as vital as formulating the action plan itself.
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Tags: contingency, contingency planning, contingency thinking, Eisenhower, Finikiotis, JSOC, meta planning, Metaplanning, Obama, Osprey Associates, ospreyvision, Planning, planning measures, SEAL, SEAL6, Special Forces, tactical, tactical level, what else can go wrong
Posted in Business Practices, Collaboration, Planning | 6 Comments »
April 29th, 2011
If you’re absorbed by events in the Middle East and crave more information about the the region, here are three highly readable, essential books. Each provides a comprehensive view of a surprisingly diverse and increasingly dynamic part of the world.
The Middle East (1997) – Author Bernard Lewis is the senior dean of Middle East scholars. He’s a gifted storyteller with unparalleled subject mastery – a rare combination. Lewis makes clear sense out of complexity. This engaging primer is the gold standard of books on the region.
A Peace to End All Peace – The Fall of the Ottoman Empire and Creation of the Modern Middle East (2001) – David Fromkin toiled for ten years to describe the birth of the region’s nation states. This is the story of how the Western powers carved up the Middle East with little regard for the consequences. It’s required reading for anyone interested in understanding the forces that shape the region today.
The Modern Middle East: A Political History since the First World War (2nd Edition) (2011) – This primer by Mehren Kamrava provides a sound historical context for the events of today’s Arab Spring. Kamrava updated the book in the 2nd edition, published earlier this year. It’s recommended for anyone wanting to fill the gaps in their understanding of the region.
Tags: Bernard Lewis, David Fromkin, essential reading, gcc, Mehran Kamrava, mena, middle east, Ottoman
Posted in Books, Gulf (GCC) Region, International Business, Middle East | 1 Comment »
April 5th, 2011
Scenarios are the most powerful vehicles I know for challenging our “mental models” about the world and lifting the blinders that limit our creativity and resourcefulness. ~Peter Schwartz
Using a longer lens
It’s been twenty years since the publication of Peter Schwartz’s insightful primer about scenario planning, The Art of the Long View. In the book, Schwartz makes a convincing case for using scenario planning in approaching strategic challenges of various kinds.
Schwartz, who led scenario planning efforts at Shell, Motorola, and Pacific Gas and Electric, concluded that the technique could be applied to handling the emergent complex threats that companies were confronting in the 90′s.
Since then, the world has grown radically more complex, more uncertain. Globalization and the Internet have woven together our institutions so that a crisis in one corner of the world can spread virally with far-reaching consequences.
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Tags: charlie rose, design thinking, Global Business Network, Lee Kuan Yew, Metaplanning, ospreyvision, Peter Ho, Peter Schwartz, planning for uncertainty, scenario planning, scenario thinking, Singapore, Singapore miracle
Posted in Books, Business Model, Business Practices, Collaboration, design thinking, Innovation, leadership, Learning, MetaPlanning, Story Telling, What's Next? (WILD CARD) | 6 Comments »
March 1st, 2011
Reverberating events
The uprisings in the Arab world are capturing worldwide attention not only because we’re witnessing history in the making, but because the changes are bound to affect us all. We live in a world that’s interconnected in ways that were hard to fathom only a few years ago. Interconnectedness is creating new challenges with social implications that traditional institutions and leaders aren’t equipped to handle.
The clashes across the Middle East and North Africa are only the latest example of unforeseen events that reverberate across regional boundaries. Before that, the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the U.S. sparked a deep global recession that affected more sectors than anything economists had seen before. As some economies began recovering during the following year, Europe’s mounting debt crisis triggered a cascade of new problems in distant economies.
Today’s challenges, geopolitical or otherwise, are more difficult to predict, understand and handle than the kinds of problems we’ve seen until recently. As the world grows more interconnected, we become more exposed to what design theorists Horst Rittel and Melvin Webber called “wicked problems” which are substantially harder to define and solve than so-called “tame” problems.
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Tags: age of design, CogNexus, complex, complsity, design theorist, design thinking, Horst Rittel, integrative thinking, Jeff Conklin, John Camillus, Mary Poppendieck, Melvin Webber, relational skills, roger martin, rotman, shared understanding, solving wicked problems, wicked, wicked problems
Posted in Planning, Problem solving, Relational competency, What's Next? (WILD CARD) | 6 Comments »
February 11th, 2011
Cairo on the Nile
The images streaming in from Egypt are stirring. It’s evident that this uprising will reverberate not only in the region but around the world. What comes next is hard to fathom, but what the Egyptian people have accomplished is admirable.
My appreciation of Egypt and Cairo, in particular, dates back to my first trip there in the 80′s. I recall most vividly the felucca boats sailing along the Nile — symbols of the city’s timelessness. After many assignments there over the years, I still find Cairo to be one of the most enchanting cities in the world — on par with Paris and Istanbul.
The pulsating energy of this city of 16 million people comes not only from its density but from the stunning diversity of its people. Cairo is the largest city in the Arab world, Africa and the Mediterranean, and has been a magnet that’s attracted people from each of these regions and beyond.
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Tags: cairo, civil disobedience, friedman, protests, rodenbeck
Posted in africa, Middle East | 2 Comments »
January 18th, 2011
High stakes, high pressure
As our society debates the need for more civil discourse, we’re underplaying the value of competing perspectives among our leaders. I’m a fan of rival leaders who can come together despite their differences to redefine their company’s mission.
For institutions grappling with deep change, there’s no better way to start than by assembling a coalition of leaders and entrusting them to set a new direction. When the stakes are high, a team of diverse, tough-minded leaders reaching a consensus can yield resoundingly productive results.
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Tags: coalition of leaders, guiding coalition, harvard business school, hbs, John P. Kotter, strategy, way forward
Posted in Business Model, Business Practices, Collaboration, What's Next? (WILD CARD) | 5 Comments »
January 6th, 2011
In his insightful book, Where Good Ideas Come From, Steven Johnson tells the story of Kevin Dunbar, a McGill University social psychologist, who sought to figure out in the early ’90s how research scientists generate breakthrough ideas. Dunbar videotaped and interviewed researchers working in a variety of settings.
In tracking the activities and relative successes of his subjects, Dunbar found that the greatest number of breakthroughs occurred not when scientists were peering into their microscopes, as one might suspect, but when they were talking with one another at meetings.
Why? When chatting with their colleagues who worked on other projects, the researchers tended to re-conceptualize their own work to be understood. In doing so, new ideas emerged and, occasionally, some were fruitful.
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Tags: kevin dunbar, matt ridley, rational optimist, steven b johnson, steven johnson, the natural history of innovation, where good ideas come from
Posted in Collaboration, Innovation, Planning, Problem solving | 16 Comments »
January 1st, 2011
The New Year’s break is a timeout to reflect on the year before turning the page. In 2010, I enjoyed assignments in “frontier” markets which are becoming engines of innovation. With far-flung destinations that in mind, here’s a Short List of interesting books, music and travel experiences. Cheers!
Tags: 2010, Finikiotis, New Year, osprey, short list
Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »
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